Akshaya Tritiya Gold Buying: Beyond Tradition to Financial Strategy
In India, purchasing gold extends far beyond its safe-haven appeal—it is deeply rooted in cultural auspiciousness, with festivals like Akshaya Tritiya driving significant buying activity. According to Jateen Trivedi, VP Research Analyst at LKP Securities, both physical gold and MCX gold have maintained a structurally bullish trend in recent years, particularly during phases of global uncertainty, inflation spikes, and currency volatility.
Recent Price Trends and Historical Performance
Gold and silver prices surged to new peaks in January this year, but have since retreated. The safe-haven status of gold was recently tested as prices declined following the onset of the US-Iran conflict. A report by Motilal Oswal Wealth Management highlights that Akshaya Tritiya has historically served as a favorable entry point for long-term gold investors. Year-to-date, gold and silver have gained approximately 10% and 5%, respectively, with gold prices remaining elevated despite recent drops.
Comparing asset classes over the past decade reveals insightful trends. From last Akshaya Tritiya (April 30, 2025) to mid-April 2026, silver outperformed dramatically, delivering returns of 158–160%, compared to gold's roughly 60% gain. Silver prices jumped from below Rs 1 lakh per kg to around Rs 2.50 lakh per kg, driven by high industrial demand and investment inflows, even briefly exceeding Rs 4.25 lakh per kg in futures contracts earlier this year.
In contrast, stock markets have faced challenges due to foreign outflows and rupee depreciation, with the BSE Sensex declining since last Akshaya Tritiya. Over the last 10 years, gold has consistently yielded positive returns from one Akshaya Tritiya to another, averaging 19%, while Sensex delivered 13% and silver 27%. Notably, 2017 was an exception with negative returns for gold. This long-term data underscores periods of single-digit returns interspersed with exceptional performances, such as last year, which elevate the averages.
Expert Insights on Akshaya Tritiya Investment Decisions
Five experts provide nuanced perspectives on whether to buy gold this Akshaya Tritiya, emphasizing a long-term, balanced approach.
Vedika Narvekar, Research Analyst at Anand Rathi Shares and Stock Brokers, notes a positive outlook but advises caution due to resistance factors. Persistent energy supply disruptions may keep inflation high, prompting tighter monetary policies and higher bond yields, which could reduce gold's appeal as it offers no interest income. Central bank buying, though strong historically, typically slows in the second quarter, with spot gold averaging a 1.2% rise in Q2 over 20 years. Despite near-term caps, structural drivers like central bank purchases, global uncertainties, and inflation concerns remain. She recommends accumulating gold in 3-4 tranches on dips of 3-4%, with MCX gold potentially rising 18–20% by next Akshaya Tritiya, supported by a floor around ₹1,30,000 and resistance at ₹1,65,000.
Praveen Singh, Head of Commodities at Mirae Asset ShareKhan, points to shifting rate expectations amid the Iran conflict, which has reignited inflationary pressures and led to a stronger US dollar and tighter liquidity. Gold may face short-term volatility, but the medium-to-long term outlook for 2026–27 is constructive, supported by de-dollarization, global sovereign debt of $340 trillion, and fiscal risks. He anticipates gold prices moving toward $6,000–$6,500 per ounce over the next year.
Maneesh Sharma, Commodity & Currency Expert, attributes recent gold price declines to temporary liquidity shocks and slowing central bank buying. The outlook remains sensitive to US Federal Reserve policies and equity market rallies. Historically, May–June periods show seasonally weak performance, but the latter half of the year is expected to be positive due to economic slowdown concerns. He suggests a portfolio mix of 60% gold and 40% silver, with a staggered investment approach on price dips of 5-10%, expecting 18–25% returns by next Akshaya Tritiya.
Jateen Trivedi of LKP Securities emphasizes the cultural and financial logic of buying gold on Akshaya Tritiya for long-term wealth protection. However, with prices elevated, a staggered accumulation strategy near ₹1,30,000 is advised. The one-year outlook is positive, driven by geopolitical uncertainty, inflation risks, central bank buying, and currency volatility, with upside targets of ₹1,75,000–₹1,85,000.
Kaveri More, Commodity Analyst at Choice Broking, highlights macroeconomic influences from Middle East tensions, China-Taiwan issues, and shifting monetary policies. Buying gold makes sense but not in lump sums; a staggered "buy-on-dips" strategy around support zones like ₹1,46,800–₹1,36,300 is recommended, with targets of ₹1,69,000–₹1,80,000 over 12 months.
In summary, Akshaya Tritiya presents a strategic opportunity for gold investment, but experts unanimously advocate for a disciplined, long-term approach with staggered purchases to navigate current volatility and capitalize on future gains.
