Budget 2026 Trading Strategy: Expert Raja Venkatraman Reveals Top Stock Picks
As India prepares for the Union Budget 2026 presentation on Sunday, February 1, market expert Raja Venkatraman, co-founder of NeoTrader, has identified three promising stocks for investors to consider. With special trading sessions scheduled for Budget Day, these recommendations come at a crucial time when markets are showing volatility amid pre-Budget anticipation.
Market Context: Pre-Budget Volatility and Sectoral Pressure
The Indian stock markets closed lower on Friday, January 30, with the Sensex dropping 0.35% to 82,269 and the Nifty 50 falling 0.40% to 25,320. This decline was attributed to multiple factors including profit-taking ahead of the Union Budget, significant drops in commodity prices, and weak signals from global markets. The cautious investor sentiment reflects the uncertainty surrounding Budget announcements.
The Nifty 50 index snapped its three-day winning streak on January 30 amid consolidation before the Budget. Despite attempts at recovery, the index faced stiff resistance around the 25,500 zone, preventing sustained upward movement. Banking sector expectations remained unfulfilled, contributing to the persistent market pressure that eroded bullish sentiment.
Technical Outlook: Challenges and Opportunities
The current market scenario presents both challenges and opportunities. The inability to maintain bullish momentum has become an impediment to sustaining the strong upward drive that characterized recent weeks. Volatility continues to hamper trends, with indices taking a breather after their recent moves.
While overall momentum remains buoyant, the unexpected stretch of positive sentiment has begun attracting hesitation. The broader indices have retraced over the last three days due to the inability of macro news triggers to generate sustained momentum. However, the bullish camp has managed to revive its bias despite these minor hiccups.
Notably, the Bank Nifty managed to surpass the 60,000 level and maintain that position, representing a positive development. However, PSU banks faced pressure during the week, while private banks showed contained bullishness. The small and midcap indices, along with the NSE 500, remain significantly lower than their all-time highs, indicating a lack of continuation to the upside.
Raja Venkatraman's Top Three Stock Recommendations
1. Mahindra & Mahindra Financial Services (M&MFIN)
Current Market Price: ₹375.55
Recommendation: Buy above ₹380
Stop Loss: ₹360
Target Price: ₹415 (Multiday trade)
Why it's recommended: M&MFIN, a major Indian NBFC headquartered in Mumbai specializing in vehicle financing for rural and semi-urban markets, has shown strong technical signals. After consolidating for a while, the stock has rebounded strongly from cloud supports. The upthrust observed suggests potential for continued upward movement, with the revival surpassing the cloud region and showing strong upside in the last trading session.
Key Metrics:
- P/E Ratio: 21.12
- 52-week high: ₹412.30
- Volume: 4.37M
- Technical analysis indicates support at ₹350 and resistance at ₹450
Risk Factors: High exposure to rural economy, significant financial leverage, and competitive pressures on profitability.
2. Union Bank of India
Current Market Price: ₹180.76
Recommendation: Buy above ₹182
Stop Loss: ₹175
Target Price: ₹198 (Multiday trade)
Why it's recommended: This leading public sector bank headquartered in Mumbai has demonstrated resilience following a robust Q3 performance. Recent dips have created opportunities for a sharp revival, with the long body candle observed on Friday suggesting potential for higher levels despite some volatility.
Key Metrics:
- P/E Ratio: 34
- 52-week high: ₹4170
- Volume: 15.74M
- Technical analysis indicates support at ₹165 and resistance at ₹220
Risk Factors: Credit quality concerns (MSME/retail defaults), market volatility related to interest rates and competition, cyber threats, regulatory changes, and execution challenges in digital strategy implementation.
3. G R Infraprojects (GRINFRA)
Current Market Price: ₹964.35
Recommendation: Buy above ₹970
Stop Loss: ₹935
Target Price: ₹1110 (Multiday trade)
Why it's recommended: This prominent infrastructure company specializing in road engineering, procurement, and construction has shown signs of revival after a steep selloff. Intraday charts suggest emerging trends could shape up with new projects, supported by ADX and DMI indicators. The volume surge hints at potential upward traction that could receive additional fuel from Budget announcements.
Key Metrics:
- P/E Ratio: 10.48
- 52-week high: ₹1441.60
- Volume: 83.51K
- Technical analysis indicates support at ₹900 and resistance at ₹1500
Risk Factors: Volatile raw material costs, potential power and water supply issues, and possible labor disputes.
Investment Considerations and Market Outlook
As prices have rebounded from supports around 24,900-25,000, the road ahead remains challenging. Decoding upcoming events, particularly Budget announcements, will present its own difficulties. Option chain analysis reveals certain levels that remain circumspect with limited market participation.
The Nifty continues to move toward the next resistance around the 25,500 mark, while Bank Nifty aims to clear 60,000. Options data suggests trends could become stretched in the coming sessions.
Important Disclaimer: Raja Venkatraman is co-founder of NeoTrader with SEBI-registered research analyst registration number INH000016223. Investments in securities are subject to market risks. Investors should read all related documents carefully before investing. Registration granted by SEBI and certification from NISM do not guarantee intermediary performance or assure returns. The views and recommendations in this analysis are those of individual analysts and do not represent Mint's views. Investors should consult certified experts before making investment decisions.
