Chief Economic Adviser (CEA) V Anantha Nageswaran has robustly defended the credibility of India's GDP statistics, asserting that the country does not manipulate revisions in methodology or base years to artificially inflate economic growth figures. In an interview with news agency ANI, Nageswaran addressed concerns raised by certain economists regarding India's GDP estimates, emphasizing that GDP measurement is inherently an estimate in every nation and that India adheres to internationally accepted statistical practices.
GDP as an Estimate
“GDP is an estimate. No country can pretend that they have an accurate way of measuring the GDP,” Nageswaran stated, highlighting the universal nature of such statistical challenges. He argued that India's recent GDP rebasing exercise itself demonstrates the government's commitment to transparency rather than attempting to boost economic output through statistical revisions.
Rebasing Exercise Evidence
“If they had said Indian GDP was no longer 354 lakh crores but 384 lakh crores, people would have accepted that. That is what many countries do. In fact, we are the only country which brought it down,” he said, referring to the revision following the change in base year and methodology. “So we are not trying to use any of these methodological changes to bump up our numbers,” he added.
Focus on Reliable Statistics
The CEA emphasized that India's statistical framework is dedicated to producing reliable data rather than figures that support any particular narrative. “We produce reliable statistics. We follow internationally accepted methods and we don't use the GDP methodological revisions to bump up numbers artificially,” he said. “Our philosophy is to let the statistics speak for themselves.”
International Institutions' Observations
Referring to observations made by international institutions, Nageswaran noted that queries raised by organizations such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) have primarily pertained to methodology rather than the credibility of India's data. “IMF, for example, they only questioned us not on the reliability, but on the fact that some of the methodologies need improvement,” he said, adding that such improvements have since been implemented.
Criticism Linked to Expectations
Nageswaran also argued that criticism of GDP estimates often stems from expectations about the economy rather than concerns over data quality. “I think the problem with some of these critiques is that if the number doesn't meet their expectations, then they are willing to call it, 'I don't have trust in that number',” he said, as quoted by ANI.
Consistency in Data Acceptance
Recalling the sharp economic contraction during the Covid-19 pandemic, he noted that India's GDP figures were widely accepted when they reflected a steep decline. “In the first quarter, April to June 2020, Indian GDP went down by 25 per cent year on year. At that time, nobody said this is a much exaggerated fall. I don't trust the Indian GDP numbers,” he said. “If the statistics doesn't confirm my belief or wish that the Indian economy is actually in a bad state, then the statistics are unreliable. So I find this inconsistency difficult to accept,” Nageswaran added.
