Indian Stock Market Braces for Budget Day with Anticipated Higher Opening
The Indian stock market is gearing up for a significant trading session on Sunday, February 1, with benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty 50 expected to open higher. This special trading session coincides with the presentation of the Union Budget 2026-2027 by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman in the Lok Sabha, injecting a dose of volatility into the market atmosphere.
Market Indicators Point to Positive Start
GIFT Nifty futures concluded at 25,443 on Friday, signaling that the NSE Nifty 50 is likely to commence trading above its previous close of 25,320.65. This comes after a downward correction on Friday, where profit booking ended a three-session winning streak. The Sensex declined by 296.59 points, or 0.36%, to settle at 82,269.78, while the Nifty 50 dropped 98.25 points, or 0.39%, closing at 25,320.65.
Sensex Technical Outlook: Consolidation and Key Levels
On the daily charts, Sensex formed a small candle, reflecting indecisiveness between bullish and bearish forces. Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research at Kotak Securities, emphasized that as long as Sensex maintains above the 82,000 mark, positive sentiment is likely to persist. He projected potential upward movements to 82,800, with further extensions possible to 83,000 - 83,200. Conversely, a fall below 82,000 could trigger increased weakness, leading to a quick intraday dip to 81,500 - 81,200.
Mayank Jain, Market Analyst at Share.Market, noted that Sensex has entered a consolidation phase, trading below its 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), mirroring broader market nervousness. Immediate support is identified in the 81,800 – 82,000 zone, with the 82,000 Put Option holding substantial Open Interest to act as an initial cushion. For a sustainable trend reversal, reclaiming the 83,000 – 83,200 resistance zone is crucial.
Nifty 50 Analysis: Bullish Signals and Budget Impact
Nifty 50 formed a bullish hammer pattern after testing the 200-day EMA, suggesting a possible short-term reversal. Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities, observed a reasonable green candle with a minor upper shadow on the daily chart, indicating consolidation near crucial resistance. He highlighted that the market awaits fresh direction from the Union Budget, with immediate support at 25,200. A sustainable upmove above 25,450 - 25,500 levels could open sharp upside potential.
In the derivatives segment, market breadth leans bearish, with 82 stocks advancing and 130 declining. On the Nifty options front, the highest Open Interest on the call side is at the 25,300 and 26,000 strikes, while on the put side, it concentrates at the 25,300 strike. The Put-Call Ratio stands at 0.73, reflecting cautious undertones, as noted by Ashika Institutional Equities.
Sudeep Shah, Head of Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities, pointed out that immediate resistance for Nifty 50 lies in the 25,450 – 25,500 zone. The index has failed to decisively close above this zone after two attempts in the last six sessions. A breakout could extend the pullback towards 25,650, followed by 25,800 in the near term. On the downside, the 200-day EMA zone of 25,200 – 25,150 is expected to serve as strong support.
Bank Nifty Prediction: Medium-Term Positivity with Range-Bound Movement
Bank Nifty index ended 347.40 points, or 0.58%, lower at 59,610.45 on Friday, forming a bullish candle after holding above the 20-day EMA, indicating strong buying at lower levels. Dr. Ravi Singh, Chief Research Officer at Master Capital Services Ltd., highlighted that Bank Nifty bounced precisely from its 21-week EMA, underscoring a positive medium-term structure. The daily RSI near 52 suggests neutral to improving momentum with room for further upside. Key support is at the 59,300 – 59,250 zone, with a break below potentially dragging the index toward 58,700. On the upside, 60,000 is a psychological resistance, with sustained strength above it opening the path to 60,500.
Om Mehra, Technical Research Analyst at SAMCO Securities, emphasized that the Nifty Bank index remains above all major moving averages, indicating the broader trend is intact despite recent pullbacks. However, it stays below the Supertrend level, acting as an important near-term resistance. Immediate support is at 59,200, followed by 58,800, with a close below increasing downside pressure. Resistance is seen at 59,900 – 60,000, followed by the Supertrend level near 60,200. The index remains range-bound in the short term, with levels on either side likely to guide the next directional move.
As investors navigate this Budget day, market participants are advised to monitor these technical levels closely, with the Union Budget's announcements poised to set the tone for future trading sessions. The special trading session adds an extra layer of activity, making volatility a key theme for the day.
