After experiencing a disappointing performance throughout 2024, Reliance Industries Limited (RIL) is now staging one of its most impressive comebacks since the pandemic year of 2020. The conglomerate's remarkable turnaround is being powered by multiple positive developments across its diverse business portfolio including energy, telecommunications, and retail operations.
Spectacular Stock Performance and Market Capitalization Surge
The Nifty heavyweight has witnessed an extraordinary jump of more than 26% during 2025, adding a staggering Rs 4.4 lakh crore to its market valuation. This impressive rally has pushed the company's total market capitalization close to the significant milestone of Rs 21 lakh crore. The stock achieved a notable 52-week high of Rs 1,557.95 during Friday's trading session, signaling strong investor confidence in the company's future prospects.
Financial analysts attribute this substantial surge to what they describe as a rare convergence of favorable factors across all of Reliance's business segments. These include improving refining margins, tariff-led gains in the telecom sector, consistent retail traction, and multiple value-unlocking initiatives that are beginning to reflect in the company's earnings visibility.
Telecom Business Emerges as Major Growth Engine
The telecommunications arm of the conglomerate, Reliance Jio, has received significant attention from global financial institutions. Jefferies has dramatically raised its target enterprise value for Reliance Jio to $180 billion, projecting impressive growth rates of 18% and 21% in revenue and EBITDA CAGR respectively over the FY26–28 period.
The international brokerage firm cited several key catalysts for this optimistic outlook, including rising tariffs, fixed wireless access-led broadband growth, scaling up of the enterprise business, and successful monetization of Jio's technology stack. Jefferies has also increased its target EV/EBITDA multiple to 15x, representing a 10% premium compared to Bharti Airtel.
Market expert Sudip Bandyopadhyay emphasized that the telecom segment is positioned to be a major accelerator for Reliance's overall growth. "The next quarter's results will be very positive as the benefits of ARPU increases flow through fully," he stated, while adding that another ARPU hike before the fiscal year concludes could provide "fresh momentum" to the stock.
Bandyopadhyay also highlighted the potential impact of the anticipated announcement regarding Jio's listing during the Annual General Meeting. "This value-unlocking event and its announcement will also trigger a lot of excitement in the counter," he noted, referring to the possibility of Jio's listing in the first half of the next calendar year.
Broader Business Segments Show Strong Momentum
ICICI Securities has upgraded its rating on Reliance to 'Buy' with a price target of Rs 1,735, pointing to robust retail momentum, significant progress in new energy initiatives, and the growing importance of its media business. The brokerage expects the company to deliver a consolidated EPS CAGR of 15% over FY26–28, supported by diversified growth engines and improved return ratios.
The oil-to-chemicals (O2C) segment, which had been under pressure for an extended period, is now showing clear signs of improvement. According to UBS analysis, Asia refining margins have strengthened due to "healthy fundamentals, refinery maintenance, seasonal swings, and geopolitical developments". The Swiss financial services firm expects O2C EBITDA to rise from Rs 295 billion in H1 to Rs 340 billion in H2 FY26, and further increase to Rs 648 billion in FY27.
UBS has maintained its 'Buy' rating on Reliance with a target price of Rs 1,820, while noting that margins might moderate slightly as refineries return from maintenance. However, the firm anticipates "above mid-cycle spreads sustaining amid project delays."
Strategic Business Decisions and Future Outlook
In a significant recent development, Reliance announced last week that it has halted imports of Russian crude for its export-only Jamnagar refinery in response to European Union sanctions. Despite this decision, market expert Bandyopadhyay expressed confidence that this move would not adversely affect the company's profitability.
"The way GRMs are shaping up… Reliance is very well positioned to maintain its profitability and revenue from this segment," he assured, indicating that the company has strategic alternatives to mitigate any potential impact.
Bandyopadhyay also highlighted that value unlocking in the retail business remains a potential driver for future growth. "Something can be done as far as value unlocking is concerned in the retail business — that has also become pretty big and some value-unlocking measures can be taken there," he suggested.
With the simultaneous positive developments in telecom gains, O2C recovery, retail expansion, and advances in new energy initiatives, analysts broadly expect the current momentum to continue. "We have been positive on Reliance for quite some time and we maintain our positive view," Bandyopadhyay affirmed. "With a slightly long-term view, Reliance can be bought even now."
For the company's substantial base of 44 lakh shareholders, this dramatic turnaround represents a welcome shift from the volatility experienced throughout 2024. If the various catalysts identified by analysts continue to materialize as expected, Reliance Industries' impressive 2025 rally may still have considerable room to extend its upward trajectory.
