India's imports of Russian crude oil are projected to see a significant monthly decline in December 2025, according to the latest data. However, analysts indicate the fundamental trade partnership between the two nations remains robust.
December Sees a Notable Drop in Volumes
Real-time data from the analytics firm Kpler shows a sharp expected decrease in shipments for the final month of the year. Imports are forecast to fall to approximately 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) in December. This marks a substantial drop from the November 2025 level, which stood at a much higher 1.84 million bpd.
Structural Trade Ties Remain Unshaken
Despite the noticeable dip for December, experts and market watchers are quick to point out that the broader trade framework is intact. The monthly fluctuation is attributed to typical market variables rather than a strategic shift. Key factors influencing this temporary decline include:
- Adjustments in global crude oil pricing differentials.
- Logistical scheduling and tanker availability.
- Refinery maintenance cycles and inventory management.
The data, reported on 30 December 2025, underscores the dynamic nature of global energy trade. India has become a major buyer of Russian oil in recent years, a trend that continues to define its energy import strategy.
Market Context and Future Outlook
The December figures represent a snapshot in a volatile market. While the month-on-month decrease is clear, the overall volume remains historically significant for the India-Russia energy corridor. The resilience of this trade relationship highlights its importance for India's energy security and its position in the global oil market. Observers will be closely watching January 2026 data to see if volumes rebound, confirming the temporary nature of the December slowdown.
