India Defies Trump's Tariffs with October Export Recovery
In a surprising turnaround, India's exports to the United States have demonstrated remarkable resilience by growing 14.5% in October compared to September, despite facing 50% tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump on Indian goods. According to data from the Global Trade and Research Initiative (GTRI), this marks the first monthly growth since May 2024, signaling a potential recovery in bilateral trade relations.
The merchandise exports to the United States reached $6.3 billion in October 2025, showing significant improvement from the $5.5 billion recorded in September. However, when compared to the same period last year, the figures tell a different story, with October 2025 exports registering an 8.58% decline from the $6.9 billion achieved in October 2024.
Tariff Impact and Sector Performance
GTRI founder Ajay Srivastava highlighted that the October rebound comes despite the challenging tariff environment. "Although October 2025 exports of $6.3 billion are 8.6% lower than the $6.9 billion recorded in October 2024, the month-on-month rise from September is a welcome improvement," Srivastava noted.
The tariff structure implemented by the Trump administration includes 25% as penalty for India's crude oil imports from Russia, with the total reaching 50% in August. While product-specific data for October remains unavailable, analysts suggest that tariff-exempt sectors such as smartphones and pharmaceuticals likely performed better, though this remains speculative.
The broader picture reveals significant challenges, with India's shipments to the US dropping nearly 28.4% between May and October 2025, erasing more than $2.5 billion in monthly export value during this period.
Global Trade Patterns and Precious Metals Surge
India's overall export performance reflects global demand softness, with aggregate exports declining 11.8% year-on-year in October. Among India's top 20 export markets, only five showed growth, with Spain leading at 43.4% increase primarily due to enhanced petroleum product exports, followed by China with 42.3% growth.
The import sector tells a different story, with India's merchandise imports reaching $73.2 billion in October 2025, representing 16.5% growth. This surge was largely driven by unprecedented increases in precious metals purchases.
Gold imports witnessed a remarkable 188.2% increase, totaling $14.7 billion, while silver imports demonstrated extraordinary growth of 528.7%, amounting to $2.7 billion compared to the previous year. This substantial increase in precious metal imports is particularly notable given that India's gems and jewellery exports declined by 29.5% in October, suggesting that the imported gold and silver are primarily serving domestic consumption rather than export-oriented manufacturing.
Monthly Export Trends and Future Outlook
The monthly export data reveals a volatile pattern throughout 2025:
- April 2025: $8.4 billion (baseline)
- May 2025: $8.8 billion (+4.8% growth)
- June 2025: $8.3 billion (-5.7% decline)
- July 2025: $8.0 billion (-3.6% decline)
- August 2025: $6.9 billion (-13.8% decline)
- September 2025: $5.5 billion (-20.3% decline)
- October 2025: $6.3 billion (+14.5% growth)
The October recovery, while modest, provides hope for Indian exporters navigating the challenging global trade environment. The resilience shown in the face of significant tariff barriers demonstrates the underlying strength of India-US trade relations and the adaptability of Indian exporters.
