Panaji: The 2011 Census, for the first time, pointed to Goa's fertility rate dropping to below replacement rate at 1.7 children per woman in the reproductive age group. The latest National Family Health Survey (NFHS) 6 showed that Goa's fertility rate has fallen to the second lowest in the country, 1.6.
Now, the directorate of education's (DoE) annual statistical report has shown that the impact of the low fertility and birth rates has begun reflecting on school enrolment in the state. Over the past seven years, Goa's school enrolment dropped consistently, with close to 10,000 fewer students studying at the primary level in 2025-26 as against 2019-20.
There were 88,800 students enrolled in primary schools in Goa from Class I to IV in 2025-26 as against 98,520 in 2019-20, a drop of 9,720. For decades since Goa's Liberation, enrolment was only on the rise.
For instance, 96,467 students were enrolled in primary schools in 2016-17, which went up to 97,044 the following year and further to 98,227 in 2018-19. But now, a year-on-year decline has set in.
Educationists said that the drop in enrolment has been evident in classrooms over the past few years. "It became especially obvious during the Covid-19 pandemic, when many migrant families chose to leave the state and there was a sudden drop in enrolment. If you come especially to schools in Salcete taluka, you will see that it is mostly children of migrants from north Indian states like Jharkhand and Uttar Pradesh who are keeping many schools running with the numbers, especially govt and aided institutions," said former chairperson of the Goa board of secondary and higher secondary education, Jose Remedios Rebello.
If the current birth rate continues over the next five years, students answering Class X exam from the Goa board can be expected to drop to 12,000 from the present 18,000-20,000, said Rebello.
The DoE's report shows that during the last academic year, only 278 new children enrolled in schools in Class I in the entire Dharbandora taluka. In Sanguem sub-district, the new enrolments stood at 330, while it was 598 in Canacona, and 768 in Sattari.
"It is a matter of concern and the causes should be researched by state govt. We hardly have 20,000 students appearing for Class X exams from the state board, if student numbers keep going down in this manner, what is the future of Goa's education department and the state board?" said Vithoba Dessai, former president of the Goa headmasters' association and long-time head of the all Goa secondary school teachers' association.
"Children of migrant workers form a chunk of the enrolment in many schools in the state now. However, the DoE data needs to be reviewed and checked whether there could be private primary schools operating, which the education department has failed to bring under its ambit," he said.
Rebello said that Goa is an attraction for migrant parents as it is one of the states offering English medium education at a reasonable fee in govt-aided schools, and with Konkani taught in devanagari script not acting as a hurdle.
"If enrolment from this section was to stop, the future for many Goa schools would be bleak," said Rebello.
The highest new enrolments in schools during the last academic year in Class I were seen from Salcete (4,529), Bardez (3,686), Tiswadi (2,460), Ponda (2,288), and Mormugao (2,117).
Rebello said that this uneven distribution in new enrolments is visible for a long time now as these are more urbanised sub-districts and parents are known to prefer urban schools.
