Global Religious Landscape Transforms as 'Nones' Reach 1.9 Billion
A groundbreaking analysis from the Pew Research Center's Pew-Templeton Global Religious Futures project reveals a profound shift in global religious identification. According to the latest data, nearly a quarter of the world's population now identifies with no religion, representing one of the most significant demographic changes of the past decade.
Unprecedented Growth of the Religiously Unaffiliated
The comprehensive study, drawing on more than 2,700 censuses and surveys across 201 countries and territories covering 99.98% of the global population in 2020, documents remarkable growth among religiously unaffiliated individuals. Commonly referred to as "nones," this category includes atheists, agnostics, and those who describe their religion as "nothing in particular."
Between 2010 and 2020, the number of religiously unaffiliated people increased by 270 million, reaching 1.9 billion worldwide. Their share of the global population climbed from 23.3% to 24.2%, making them the third-largest group globally after Christians (2.3 billion) and Muslims (2.0 billion). This expansion represents one of the most significant demographic shifts in recent history.
Understanding the 'Nones' Phenomenon
The term "nones" has been used by scholars since at least the 1960s to describe those without religious affiliation. According to Pew's latest data, this diverse group comprises:
- 17% who identify as atheist
- 20% who say they are agnostic
- 63% who describe their religion as "nothing in particular"
Contrary to popular assumptions, not all "nones" reject belief in God or the supernatural. While they are significantly less likely than religiously affiliated people to believe in God "as described in the Bible," most do believe in some higher power or spiritual force. Only 29% of "nones" say there is no higher power in the universe.
Demographic Challenges and Religious Switching
The growth of the unaffiliated population is particularly notable given their demographic disadvantages. Globally, the unaffiliated have the smallest share of children under age 15 (19%) and face lower fertility rates compared to many religious groups. Their population is generally older, which typically would limit growth.
However, religious switching has emerged as the primary driver of this expansion. Pew's analysis of 117 countries and territories reveals that for every adult who joined a religion after being raised without one, 3.2 left religion altogether. This pattern has created substantial net gains for the unaffiliated category.
Christianity experienced the largest net losses, with 3.1 people leaving for every 1.0 who joined. Most former Christians became religiously unaffiliated, though some joined other religions. Buddhists also saw more departures than arrivals, while Hindus experienced slightly more departures than arrivals. Muslims were the exception, experiencing more arrivals than departures.
Country-Level Transformations
The study reveals dramatic changes at the national level. Religiously unaffiliated people gained at least five percentage points in 35 countries between 2010 and 2020. The most significant increases occurred in:
- Australia and Chile: 17 percentage point increases
- Uruguay: 16 percentage point increase
- United States: 13 percentage point increase
These shifts have altered religious majorities in several nations. Christians remained a majority in 120 countries and territories in 2020, down from 124 in 2010. Their share fell below 50% in the United Kingdom (49%), Australia (47%), France (46%), and Uruguay (44%). In each of these countries, the religiously unaffiliated now account for 40% or more of the population.
The number of countries with unaffiliated majorities increased from seven to ten over the decade. The Netherlands (54%), Uruguay (52%), and New Zealand (51%) joined China, North Korea, the Czech Republic, Hong Kong, Vietnam, Macao, and Japan, which already had unaffiliated majorities in 2010.
Geographic Concentration of the Unaffiliated
China remains the country with the largest number of religiously unaffiliated people, with approximately 1.3 billion individuals representing roughly 90% of its population. The United States now has the second-largest number, with about 101 million religious "nones" marking a 97% increase from a decade earlier. Japan follows with 73 million unaffiliated people, representing 57% of its population.
Together, these three countries account for a substantial share of the global unaffiliated population. China's unaffiliated population alone is roughly seven times the combined total in the United States and Japan.
Broader Global Religious Trends
Between 2010 and 2020, while the global population increased and most religious groups grew in absolute numbers, only Muslims and the religiously unaffiliated expanded their share of the world's population. Christians remained the largest religious group worldwide with 2.3 billion people, yet their global share declined by 1.8 percentage points to 28.8%.
Muslims grew by 347 million during the same period, more than all other religions combined, raising their share to 25.6% of the global population. The religiously unaffiliated saw substantial growth of 270 million, reaching 24.2% of humanity.
This comprehensive analysis reveals that by 2020, nearly one in four people worldwide identified with no religion. The pace and scale of change varied across regions and traditions, but the overall shift was significant enough to reduce the number of Christian-majority countries and increase the number of nations where the religiously unaffiliated form a majority. This transformation represents one of the most important demographic and cultural shifts of our time, with implications for societies, policies, and global relations in the decades to come.
