The 36th NATO summit, taking place July 7-8 in Ankara, Türkiye, arrives at a moment of profound strategic uncertainty for the alliance. While Russia remains a traditional concern, many European members now view Washington as the biggest variable, questioning US reliability, transatlantic cohesion, and the future of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation. The summit’s decisions, however, will reverberate far beyond Europe, making Ankara a critical event for India to interpret rather than influence.
NATO’s Expanding Reach and India’s Interest
Founded in 1949 as a defensive alliance against the Soviet Union, NATO has outlived its original adversary and steadily expanded its remit. Its first out-of-area operation enforced a no-fly zone in Bosnia (1992-95), followed by a 78-day aerial bombing campaign against Yugoslavia in 1999. Closer to India, NATO conducted counter-piracy operations in the Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean from 2008 to 2016. Today, its decisions shape global defence markets, military deployments, technology controls, and even Indo-Pacific security, directly affecting Indian interests.
Four Dominant Issues at Ankara
Four key issues dominate the summit: implementing the Hague commitment to raise defence spending to 5% of GDP by 2035; sustaining support for Ukraine in the fifth year of war; navigating US policy under President Donald Trump; and managing the fallout from the Iran war. These issues reveal that NATO must confront adversaries while adapting to a changing America and questioning whether a consensus-based alliance can keep pace with strategic competition. From New Delhi, the answers look different than from Washington or Brussels.
Ukraine War: A War of Attrition
NATO acknowledges that the Ukraine war has become less a test of military manoeuvre than of industrial endurance, straining allied resources. India’s consistent position—that only dialogue and diplomacy can produce a durable settlement—remains sound. A prolonged conflict will continue to reshape energy and defence markets and sanctions beyond Europe, directly impacting India’s interests.
US Leadership Under Scrutiny
The most consequential undercurrent is the US itself. Threats to annex Greenland, Trump’s musings about making Canada the 51st state, and the February 28 attack on Iran—which blindsided NATO allies—have raised doubts about US predictability. In private, many allies ask whether America has become a strategic variable they must manage. India has long held that formal alliances guarantee no predictable behaviour, and Trump’s approach unintentionally reinforces that view. European NATO members are now quietly questioning how much certainty alliances provide.
Indo-Pacific Implications
An equally important but less discussed question: if Europeans assume greater defence responsibility, Washington can devote more military attention to the Indo-Pacific. Every additional euro Europe spends on defence potentially releases American resources for the Indo-Pacific, influencing China’s strategic calculations, regional military balances, and the Indian Ocean environment. India welcomes a stable multipolar Asia but has no interest in NATO’s institutional extension into the Indo-Pacific. India’s engagement with the US as a partner is growing—from semiconductors and space to defence and diaspora—but New Delhi dismisses any NATO framing of it as a balancing partner against China. India chooses partnerships to serve its national interest, consistent with strategic autonomy and multi-alignment.
Iran Conflict and Energy Security
The Iran conflict directly reaches India. Most NATO members declined to join the US campaign against Iran while calculating how to insulate themselves from future disruptions. For India, West Asia is a neighbourhood with significant equities: ten million Indians, energy supplies, and food security. Disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz would immediately affect Indian interests. NATO discussions on securing maritime routes deserve close attention.
Defence Market Opportunities
As European NATO members raise defence budgets substantially, demand will grow for artillery, air defence, drones, and munitions. India’s defence industry has moved from buyer-seller relationships towards co-development and co-innovation. European rearmament creates opportunities Indian industry should seize.
Türkiye’s Role and India’s Calculus
Hosting the summit enables Türkiye to showcase its UAV industry while advancing regional ambitions. India’s ties with Ankara have been strained by Türkiye’s alignment with Pakistan on issues internal to India. India’s outreach to Armenia, Cyprus, and Greece in recent years was a considered response. Türkiye’s diplomatic moves on the sidelines of the summit and beyond deserve close watching.
Modi’s Visit and Contrasting Models
Coinciding with the summit, Prime Minister Narendra Modi visits Indonesia and then Australia and New Zealand (two of the “Five Eyes”). The contrast is instructive: NATO operates through treaty obligations; India through flexible partnerships, strategic autonomy, and issue-based cooperation. India engages the same strategic geography on its own terms, through a very different diplomatic model.
Outlook: Interpreting the Summit
The summit’s communiqué will paper over cracks, as such documents invariably do. The real test lies in whether NATO sustains higher defence spending, maintains credible support for Ukraine, manages the Iran war fallout, and preserves confidence in US leadership. For India, Ankara is not a meeting to influence but one to interpret. What it reveals about US leadership, European defence capacity, and NATO’s adaptability will impinge on India’s choices on defence industrial partnerships, foreign policy, and the Indo-Pacific. The summit reminds us that nothing is eternal—even the strongest alliances evolve. India’s task is to recognise that evolution before it becomes conventional wisdom and adapt accordingly.
