Donald Trump confidently declared on Truth Social that a landmark peace deal would be signed on Sunday, instantly reopening the blockaded Strait of Hormuz to global shipping. But Tehran quickly deleted that timeline.
Military Destruction vs. Diplomatic Capitulation
While months of relentless U.S. and Israeli bombardment have severely degraded Iran's conventional military infrastructure since February 28, Washington is discovering that physical destruction does not automatically equal diplomatic capitulation.
Iran's Demands Stall Negotiations
Operating through Qatari intermediaries and Pakistani-brokered drafts, Iranian negotiators are stalling the text to demand the total return of frozen assets, transit fees for the strait, and a long-term drawdown of U.S. regional military bases.
Hardliners Consolidate Power
Instead of causing the regime to fracture from within as Washington explicitly predicted, the existential threat of war has only consolidated the hardline IRGC's domestic grip—turning a swift military victory into a grinding, slow-motion diplomatic chess match.
