Trump Raises Alarm Over Russia and China in Greenland
US President Donald Trump recently made bold statements about foreign military activity near Greenland. He warned that Russia and China could occupy Greenland if the United States does not act first. Trump specifically mentioned Russian destroyers, Chinese destroyers, and Russian submarines operating around the island.
Greenland's business minister, Naaja Nathanielsen, responded to these claims on Tuesday, January 13. She stated that authorities were unaware of any Chinese or Russian ships in the area. Several experts quoted by The Associated Press also challenged Trump's assertions. They noted that Russia primarily operates in the wider Arctic region, like the Barents Sea near Scandinavia. Both China and Russia maintain a presence in the Bering Sea south of Alaska, not directly off Greenland.
US Interests and Rare Earth Minerals
The United States has shown interest in Greenland for its rare earth mineral deposits. These minerals are crucial for various industries, including technology and defense. However, extracting these resources presents significant challenges. A massive ice sheet covers about eighty percent of Greenland's land, making mining operations difficult and costly.
China's Arctic Strategy: The Polar Silk Road
China has actively pursued its interests in the Arctic through a policy it calls the "Polar Silk Road." In a 2018 white paper, the Chinese government described itself as a "Near-Arctic State," despite its geographical distance from the region. China argues that Arctic conditions directly impact its climate system and economic sectors like agriculture, forestry, and fisheries.
The white paper highlighted how global warming accelerates ice melting, opening new opportunities. It stated that the Arctic gains global significance due to rising strategic and economic values, scientific research potential, environmental concerns, sea passages, and natural resources.
China also emphasized its role as a major power involved in climate change, environmental protection, scientific research, shipping route utilization, resource exploration, and global governance. The country achieved early milestones in Arctic engagement. It hosted the Arctic Science Summit Week in 2005, becoming the first Asian nation to do so. China gained accredited observer status in the Arctic Council in 2013.
Chinese Investments and Pushback
China has invested in Greenland's Kvanefjeld project, which potentially holds one of the world's largest rare earth reserves. China already dominates the processing of these minerals, giving it leverage during trade disputes like the tariff war with the US. However, local protests have arisen due to uranium presence at Kvanefjeld, with the matter reaching courts.
China's Polar Silk Road aims to develop Arctic shipping routes as part of its global infrastructure investments. Last year, the first liner vessel traveled from China to Europe via the Northern Sea Route, reducing travel time compared to the Middle East route. Yet, China faces pushback against its growing presence.
A 2020 report by the Dutch think tank Clingendael Institute revealed that a former Danish prime minister allegedly blocked a Hong Kong company from acquiring an abandoned naval base in Greenland. This action confirmed Danish concerns about expanding Chinese influence. Chinese companies later attempted to finance airports in Greenland, but the Danish government intervened, handling foreign policy and security for the autonomous territory.
In 2019, The Wall Street Journal reported that the US Department of Defense alerted the Danish government about China's activities. China has denied any militaristic intentions. An editorial in Global Times, the English daily of the Chinese Communist Party, asserted that China's activities are purely commercial and research-oriented. It accused the US of hyping a "China's Arctic threat" to conceal its own military expansion and pursuit of hegemony in the Arctic.
Russia's Arctic Dominance and Cooperation with China
The Danish government's 2025 Intelligence Outlook noted increased US security focus on the Arctic. It described Russia as "the strongest military power in the Arctic" and highlighted China's growing capacity to operate submarines and surface vessels in the region. The report predicted that Western sanctions on Russia would deepen its Arctic cooperation with China, granting China greater access to the Russian Arctic.
Russia has a long historical presence in the Arctic. The discovery of oil and gas in Siberia during the twentieth century provided wealth, funded the Soviet military, and supported foreign policy objectives. In recent decades, Russia has revitalized Soviet-era bases, deployed missile defense systems, and increased patrols and exercises.
For example, the Nagurskoye air base, located at a latitude of around 80.80° North, has expanded significantly since the 1950s. A 2022 Reuters report cited data showing Russia now has eleven submarines capable of launching long-range nuclear weapons, with eight based in the Arctic Kola Peninsula. NATO has twenty-two such submarines between the US, France, and the UK.
Military Exercises and Strategic Limits
China and Russia have conducted joint military exercises near the Arctic region recently. China could provide financial and technical support to Russia for mineral prospecting and commerce expansion. However, analysts point out limitations to this partnership. As an Arctic state, Russia may not favor excessive Chinese presence beyond a certain point.
Trump's aggressive rhetoric on Greenland, including threats to European allies, could create another area of convergence for China and Russia. Both nations share commercial and strategic interests in the Arctic, despite disputes over Trump's specific claims about military presence near Greenland.
The Arctic remains a focal point for global powers due to its resources and shipping routes. While Trump's warnings about immediate threats may be exaggerated, the long-term ambitions of Russia and China in the region are clear and growing.
