Trump's Presidency Halts India-US Progress, Demands Strategic Rethink
Shyam Saran, a former foreign secretary, presents a compelling analysis. He states that the steady upward trajectory of India-US relations over the past twenty-five years has now stalled. This stagnation is unlikely to revive despite optimistic rhetoric from the United States embassy.
Turbulent First Year Signals Deeper Issues
The first year of Donald Trump's second term as President has been turbulent for bilateral ties. Many wonder what comes next for this crucial partnership. The noisy entry of Ambassador-designate Sergio Gor into the American embassy on January 12 sparked some hope. His upbeat remarks seemed to suggest a possible revival of past cooperation.
Indian officials in nearby South Block watched closely. They looked for signs that a bilateral trade agreement, already prepared for Trump's approval, might finally conclude. However, US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick's comments paint a different picture. He suggests Trump is waiting for a supplicatory call from Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
Trump might reportedly tell the Prime Minister, "You don't hold any cards." Saran strongly hopes PM Modi does not make that call. The events of the past year show that supplication often invites contempt and repeated humiliation. European leaders could attest to this dynamic.
Geopolitical Shifts and the China Factor
In the geopolitical card game Trump is playing, China holds a strong hand. Its control over rare earths and magnets gives it significant leverage. Consequently, Trump shows deference to President Xi Jinping and seeks a "grand bargain" with China.
When China threatened Japan over its prime minister's remarks on Taiwan's importance to Japanese security, Trump warned his own ally not to provoke Beijing. Regarding Taiwan, Trump stated that China should decide its actions, though he would be "unhappy" with an invasion. This sounds like a potential write-off of Taiwan and, by extension, the Indo-Pacific strategy.
The Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, or Quad, among India, the US, Australia, and Japan, faces becoming a casualty. Ambassador Gor mentioned Trump might visit India in a "year or two," indicating the Quad is no longer a top US priority.
A Stalled Trajectory and Domestic Complications
As we enter the second year of Trump's term, the stalled trajectory of India-US relations is evident. Rhetoric from the US embassy or India's belated inclusion in the Pax Silica initiative cannot revive it. The situation worsens with growing hostility towards Indian-Americans and expatriates in the US.
This hostility will likely provoke anti-American sentiment in India. It complicates the handling of bilateral relations. Functional collaboration in defence, counter-terrorism, and scientific cooperation remains intact. Delhi should protect these significant assets for India's economic transformation and technological advancement.
India remains a very large market and a key source of high-end manpower for American tech giants. This economic card might be the one Trump considers, given his reliance on their tacit support.
From High Hopes to Harsh Realities
Trump's inauguration in January 2024 was welcomed by PM Modi's government. They believed in ideological affinity and a personal rapport between the leaders. PM Modi's early visit to Washington seemed successful, with expectations of a swift trade deal.
The Quad foreign ministers' meeting, convened by incoming Secretary of State Marco Rubio, suggested continuity in the US Indo-Pacific strategy. It indicated that US-China competition would remain an enduring reality. These assumptions have now collapsed.
Underlying Drivers Beyond Personal Pique
The change in relations may stem from personal pique. Trump allegedly felt slighted when India did not acknowledge his role in an India-Pakistan ceasefire during Operation Sindoor. Pakistan nominated him for the Nobel Peace Prize, while India did not.
However, personal pique is merely an aggravating factor. The key drivers lie in changing geopolitics. The steady decline of US power relative to China forces a reordering of America's global position. A new Cold War appears inescapable, but its nature will differ. It will involve both collusion and confrontation between the two superpowers in roughly equal measure.
India's Path Forward: Rethinking Strategy
India must return to the drawing board and rethink its foreign policy. Lessons from the earlier Cold War could be valuable. The key will be India's ability to accelerate its economic growth. Building up technological and security capabilities is crucial.
Stabilising its periphery and forging strong partnerships with countries across the global spectrum are essential steps. India needs a new, robust foreign policy plan to navigate this complex geopolitical landscape shaped by Trump's America.
