The Matrize exit poll for the 2026 Assam Assembly elections has projected a landslide victory for the Bharatiya Janata Party-led alliance. According to the poll, the BJP and its allies are expected to secure between 105 and 115 seats in the 126-member assembly, while the Congress-led opposition is predicted to win only 20 to 30 seats.
Key Predictions of the Exit Poll
The exit poll, conducted by Matrize, indicates that the BJP's strong performance in the state will continue, with Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma likely to retain power. The poll suggests that the BJP's alliance, which includes regional parties, will dominate the election results. The Congress party, on the other hand, is expected to face a significant defeat, with its seat share dropping sharply compared to the previous elections.
Seat Share Breakdown
- BJP-led alliance: 105-115 seats
- Congress-led opposition: 20-30 seats
- Others: 5-10 seats
The exit poll also predicts that the BJP will secure a vote share of around 45-48%, while the Congress may get 25-28% of the votes. The remaining votes are expected to go to other regional parties and independents.
Reactions from Political Parties
The BJP has welcomed the exit poll predictions, with party leaders expressing confidence in forming the next government. Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma said, "The people of Assam have once again reposed their faith in the BJP's development agenda." On the other hand, the Congress has dismissed the exit poll, calling it a "manufactured narrative" to influence public perception. Congress leaders have claimed that the actual results will be different.
Key Factors Behind BJP's Expected Victory
Political analysts attribute the BJP's projected success to several factors, including the government's welfare schemes, effective handling of the COVID-19 pandemic, and the charisma of Chief Minister Sarma. The BJP's focus on infrastructure development, healthcare, and education has resonated with voters across the state. Additionally, the party's strong organizational network and alliance with regional parties have helped consolidate votes.
Comparison with Previous Elections
In the 2021 Assam Assembly elections, the BJP-led alliance won 75 seats, while the Congress-led alliance secured 50 seats. The 2026 exit poll suggests a significant increase in the BJP's seat share, indicating a shift in voter preference towards the ruling party. The Congress, which has been struggling to regain its foothold in the state, is expected to lose ground further.
What the Exit Poll Means for Assam
If the exit poll predictions hold true, the BJP will continue its dominance in Assam politics. This would mean continuity in policy and governance, with a focus on development and national security. For the Congress, a poor performance could lead to introspection and potential leadership changes. The final results, however, will be known on May 2, 2026, when the votes are counted.
In conclusion, the Matrize exit poll has set the stage for a decisive victory for the BJP in Assam, but the actual outcome awaits official counting. Political parties are gearing up for the final verdict, which will shape the state's political landscape for the next five years.
