In a significant political development, four separate opinion polls released on Tuesday have projected a substantial defeat for the RJD-led Mahagathbandhan in the upcoming Bihar Assembly Elections scheduled for 2025. The surveys indicate the opposition alliance is likely to fall short by a considerable margin against the ruling NDA coalition.
Bihar Election Projections: Detailed Breakdown
The polling agencies presented a grim picture for the Mahagathbandhan, with all four surveys showing the alliance securing significantly fewer seats than needed for a majority. Matrize forecasted the alliance would win between 70-90 seats, while People's Pulse projected a slightly higher range of 75-101 seats. The People's Insight survey was somewhat more optimistic but still limiting, predicting 87-102 seats, and Dainik Bhaskar estimated the alliance would capture 73-91 seats in the 243-member assembly.
These projections come against the backdrop of record-breaking voter participation during the final phase of polling, where the state witnessed its highest-ever voter turnout at an impressive 67.14%.
Contrasting Predictions and Emerging Players
Earlier, a C-Voter opinion poll had suggested a much tighter contest, giving the BJP-JDU-led NDA only a 40% chance of retaining power in the state. The RJD-led Mahagathbandhan followed closely with 38.3% voter preference, while Prashant Kishor's new political outfit, Jan Suraaj, emerged as a significant third force with 13.3% voter support.
This contrast between different polling agencies highlights the volatile nature of Bihar's political landscape and suggests that while the NDA appears to have an edge, the final outcome might be closer than some projections indicate.
National Political Landscape: State-wise Analysis
The election dynamics extended beyond Bihar, with several other states showing varied political trends. In Maharashtra, exit polls predicted a closely fought contest but suggested that the BJP-led Mahayuti alliance would maintain a slight advantage over the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA). Most pollsters expected the ruling alliance to retain power, though not by a substantial margin.
Delhi presented a different scenario, with most surveys forecasting a strong lead for the BJP. While some polls indicated a relatively better performance for the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), there was general consensus that the BJP would continue to dominate the capital's political landscape.
Haryana and Jharkhand showed contrasting fortunes for the ruling parties. Exit polls tipped Congress to win in Haryana, indicating a potential shift in power. In Jharkhand, pollsters projected a tight race between the BJP-led alliance and the JMM-led INDIA bloc, suggesting another closely contested battle that could go either way.
These comprehensive polls across multiple states provide crucial insights into India's evolving political dynamics as parties prepare for significant electoral battles in the coming months.
