In a significant development for Indian politics, most exit poll agencies on Tuesday projected a clear victory for the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in the high-stakes Bihar Elections 2025. However, prominent psephologist Pradeep Gupta announced that his agency, Axis My India, would delay its exit poll release by a day, creating a unique twist in the post-poll narrative.
NDA Projected for Commanding Lead
According to multiple exit polls released on Tuesday, the NDA alliance, spearheaded by Nitish Kumar's Janata Dal (United) and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), is poised to secure a decisive majority in the 243-member Bihar Legislative Assembly. The majority mark required to form the government is 122 seats.
The projections indicate that the ruling coalition is expected to win between 133 and 167 seats, a comfortable margin above the halfway point. This suggests a strong public mandate for the incumbent government following the two-phase elections.
Opposition Alliance and New Entrants
The principal opposition, the Mahagathbandhan or Grand Alliance, which includes the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), the Congress, and the Left parties, is projected to secure a significantly lower tally. Exit polls forecast the alliance winning anywhere between 73 and 102 seats.
In a notable development for a debutant party, the Jan Suraaj Party, led by political strategist Prashant Kishor, is projected to make a modest entry. The polls suggest the party may secure 0 to 5 seats in its first electoral outing.
Delayed Releases and a Note of Caution
While most agencies revealed their numbers on Tuesday, Axis My India chose a different path. The pollster stated in a post on X, "Axis My India exit poll for Bihar elections will be released tomorrow on 12th November 2025 from 5:30 pm onwards."
The agency emphasized that its release would follow detailed field work, number crunching, and a comprehensive post-poll study. This delay comes despite the agency's past boasts of high accuracy, which were later challenged by its performance in the Chhattisgarh assembly elections 2023, the Lok Sabha election 2024, and the Haryana assembly elections.
Another pollster, Today's Chanakya, also announced it would release its numbers on Wednesday, confirming the split in release schedules. The pollster posted on X, "We will release our analysis on Bihar Assembly Elections tomorrow 12 Nov 2025, which kindly be note."
It is crucial to remember that exit polls have often been incorrect in the past and serve only as indicators. The final and definitive outcome will be known only after the votes are counted on 14 November 2025, which will declare the actual result of the Bihar Elections.
