Multiple exit polls released after the conclusion of Bihar's 2025 assembly elections indicate that the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) led by Chief Minister Nitish Kumar is poised to retain power in the state. The ruling coalition, comprising Kumar's Janata Dal (United) and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), is projected to defeat the opposition Mahagathbandhan alliance in what appears to be a closely contested battle.
Seat Projections and Regional Performance
According to the comprehensive findings from Axis My India exit poll released on November 12, the NDA is expected to secure between 121 and 141 seats in the 243-member Bihar legislative assembly. The opposition Mahagathbandhan, which includes the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and Congress and is also known as the INDIA bloc, is projected to win between 98 and 118 seats.
Another prominent pollster, Today's Chanakya, has predicted an even more decisive victory for the NDA, forecasting approximately 160 seats for the ruling alliance. These projections emerged after the second and final phase of voting concluded on Tuesday, November 11.
Region-wise analysis reveals that the NDA is performing strongly across most parts of Bihar, with the exception of Seemanchal, a Muslim-dominated region where the opposition alliance appears to have maintained its influence.
Leadership Dynamics and Voter Preferences
Despite the NDA's projected victory, an interesting paradox emerges in leadership preferences. Opposition leader Tejashwi Yadav has emerged as the preferred choice for Chief Minister among voters in several polls. Axis My India data shows that 34% of respondents favored Yadav for the top position, compared to 22% supporting Nitish Kumar.
Women voters have shown clear preference for the NDA led by Nitish Kumar, likely influenced by his women-centric welfare and cash transfer schemes. Conversely, young and unemployed voters have largely rallied behind the Mahagathbandhan alliance.
The vote-share predictions indicate a narrow gap between the two major alliances. Axis My India forecasts the NDA securing around 43% of votes compared to the Mahagathbandhan's projected 41% vote share, suggesting a closely contested election despite the NDA's apparent seat advantage.
Political Implications and Future Scenarios
If the exit poll predictions hold true when actual results are declared on Friday, November 14, it would represent a significant achievement for Nitish Kumar, who has defied anti-incumbency sentiments despite being in power for over two decades.
The RJD, led by Tejashwi Yadav, is projected to emerge as the single largest party, replicating its performance in the 2020 elections. The party contested the highest number of seats—143 constituencies—among all political entities in the 2025 elections.
For the BJP, a victory in Bihar would strengthen its position in the Hindi heartland and potentially open discussions about installing its own chief minister in the state. The party has historically held the deputy chief minister position in Bihar, with the late Sushil Modi being the most prominent occupant of that role.
Meanwhile, political strategist Prashant Kishor's new Jan Suraaj Party (JSP), which many anticipated could play a kingmaker role, is projected to win very few seats according to multiple exit polls, with estimates ranging between 0 and 5 seats.
Broader Political Context
A defeat in Bihar would represent another setback for the opposition INDIA bloc and particularly for the Congress party, which contested 61 seats in the election. Since 2024, the Congress has faced defeats in seven out of nine elections, with victories only in Jammu & Kashmir and Jharkhand where it served as a junior alliance partner.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi's campaign appearances in Bihar appear to have bolstered the NDA's prospects, particularly benefiting Nitish Kumar's JD(U), which had been reduced to under 50 seats in the 2020 assembly polls.
Political analysts note that while the NDA appears positioned to form the government, Tejashwi Yadav's growing popularity and the narrow vote share difference suggest shifting political dynamics that could influence future electoral battles in Bihar.
It's important to remember that exit polls have frequently been inaccurate in their predictions in the past. The Election Commission of India will announce the official results on Friday, November 14, providing definitive answers about the political future of Bihar.
