Climate Risks Pose Major Threat to Bengal's 2026 Assembly Elections
As West Bengal prepares for its two-phase Assembly elections in April 2026, coinciding with a wider multi-state polling exercise, a concerning new report highlights how rising climate risks are emerging as a serious threat to voter safety and election management. The detailed analysis, prepared by environmental think tank Climate Trends, warns that volatile weather patterns could significantly impact the democratic process.
Pre-Monsoon Weather Turns Increasingly Unpredictable
The elections are scheduled during the pre-monsoon season, a period that has become increasingly marked by extreme and unpredictable weather across eastern India. In April 2025 alone, the state recorded at least 14 deaths due to extreme weather events, including severe heatwaves and deadly lightning strikes. Climate experts caution that such incidents are likely to become more frequent as climate change intensifies seasonal extremes throughout the region.
"April weather is no longer stable. We are seeing hotter days, warmer nights and more unpredictable storm activity," emphasized Mahesh Palawat, vice-president of Meteorology and Climate Change at Skymet Weather. "These evolving climate conditions could directly impact elections through reduced voter turnout, significant health risks for voters and election staff, and serious operational disruptions at polling stations."
Historical Weather Patterns Show Alarming Trends
Recent data from the India Meteorological Department reveals a clear and concerning pattern: April temperatures have remained consistently above normal over the past five years, with 2022 ranking among the warmest on record. Rainfall patterns have also grown increasingly erratic, swinging between severe deficits and sudden heavy downpours, while thunderstorms and lightning events have intensified in both frequency and severity.
This time of year is traditionally associated with nor'westers, locally known as Kalbaisakhi, which are violent but typically short-lived thunderstorms featuring strong winds, heavy rainfall and dangerous lightning. However, what was once considered a predictable seasonal feature is now turning increasingly erratic and unpredictable, creating additional challenges for election planning.
Logistical Challenges for Election Authorities
For election authorities, these climate risks translate into complex logistical challenges. With over 2.2 lakh polling stations and lakhs of personnel deployed across multiple states, extreme weather conditions could disrupt transportation networks, damage critical infrastructure, and endanger the lives of voters, polling staff, and security personnel.
Former Chief Election Commissioner O P Rawat acknowledged that some climate-sensitive measures are already being implemented. "The Election Commission schedules voting early in the morning and extends it into the evening to avoid peak heat hours. Facilities like queue monitoring systems and home voting options for vulnerable groups, including senior citizens and persons with disabilities, are also being introduced," he explained.
Calls for Enhanced Climate-Responsive Election Planning
However, climate and election experts argue that these existing steps might not be sufficient to address the growing climate threats. They are calling for comprehensive Standard Operating Procedures that integrate real-time weather forecasting, enhanced coordination with disaster management agencies, and robust contingency plans for polling disruptions caused by extreme weather events.
Climate scientist Roxy Mathew Koll of the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology highlighted the broader environmental drivers behind these weather changes. "The Indian Ocean and Bay of Bengal have warmed significantly, altering moisture patterns and increasing atmospheric instability throughout the region. This has created favourable conditions for intense pre-monsoon storms that could directly impact election proceedings," he explained.
Weather Forecast for the 2026 Poll Period
Early forecasts for the 2026 poll period indicate that West Bengal may experience scattered rainfall and thunderstorms, while neighboring Assam could face widespread thundershowers. Southern states participating in the multi-state elections must prepare for potentially dangerous heat and humidity conditions that could affect voter participation and election operations.
The Climate Trends report serves as a crucial warning for election planners, emphasizing that climate resilience must become an integral component of election management strategies as India faces increasingly volatile weather patterns during critical democratic exercises.
