The Indian National Congress is bracing for a crucial electoral test in 2026, with assembly elections scheduled in four pivotal states and one union territory. The party's performance in Assam, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, and Puducherry will be a significant indicator of its political revival after a disastrous 2025, where it failed to win a single seat in Delhi and recorded its lowest-ever tally in Bihar.
The Core Challenge: To Ally or Not to Ally
The grand old party's central dilemma revolves around its alliance strategy. Since being displaced from the centre stage of national politics by the BJP in 2014, Congress has struggled with its coalition arithmetic. It finds itself torn between two objectives: using alliances to stay politically relevant and refusing to cede too much space to regional partners to protect its own long-term influence. This internal conflict often leads to protracted negotiations characterized by bargaining, bullying, and even blackmail, which have frequently backfired.
The year 2026 is unlikely to be different, as early developments indicate. The party's approach varies significantly across states, reflecting its precarious position.
Pressure Tactics in Tamil Nadu and the TVK Factor
In Tamil Nadu, where Congress is part of a long-standing alliance with the DMK but not in the state government, it appears to be flexing its muscles. Congress MP Manickam Tagore recently stated that discussions must move beyond seat-sharing to power-sharing, hinting at a desire for a coalition government. Although he later attempted damage control, this was the second such demand from a state Congress leader, following similar remarks by Killiyoor MLA S Rajeshkumar months earlier.
This pressure may be linked to the emergence of actor Vijay's Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) as a potential third force. TVK's national spokesperson, Felix Gerald, called Congress a "natural ally," citing shared secular values and a friendship between Rahul Gandhi and Vijay. A subsequent meeting between Congress data analytics head Praveen Chakravarty and Vijay, though termed personal, fueled speculation. Congress may be using TVK as leverage to negotiate better terms with the DMK, but such tactics carry a high risk of backfiring.
A Pattern of Botched Alliances Across States
History offers Congress cautionary tales. In Bihar, protracted seat-sharing talks with the RJD led to a situation where no Congress leader accompanied Tejashwi Yadav during his nomination filing. A last-minute patch-up proved ineffective against the NDA.
In Madhya Pradesh, Congress's initial refusal to give seats to the Samajwadi Party sparked a public feud, though they later allied in Uttar Pradesh for the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. In Delhi, its on-again, off-again relationship with AAP saw them contest together nationally in 2024 but fight separately in the assembly elections, with Congress inadvertently aiding the BJP's victory.
The situation in Maharashtra saw Congress walking out of the Maha Vikas Aghadi to contest civic polls alone. In West Bengal, a key 2026 battleground, Congress and Trinamool Congress are national allies under the INDIA bloc but bitter state rivals. Seat-sharing talks have repeatedly failed, with Trinamool accusing Congress of unreasonable demands and Congress fearing that complete surrender would end its revival prospects in the state.
In Kerala and Assam, Congress is the principal challenger to the ruling fronts, making its strategy there equally critical.
Stuck Between Revival and Relevance
The Congress party's predicament is clear. It must first decide whether to pursue alliances or go solo to kickstart its revival. If it chooses alliances, it must then navigate the treacherous path of safeguarding its own interests without alienating partners. This balancing act has often left the party with "egg on its face."
As the 2026 elections approach, the fundamental question remains: Has the Congress learned from its past alliance blunders? The answer will unfold in the coming months, determining the party's fate in these key states and its national trajectory.
