The electoral prospects of the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) in the upcoming Nashik Municipal Corporation (NMC) polls face a significant threat from within its broader opposition space. The decision of the Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi (VBA) and the Communist Party of India (Marxist) to contest independently is poised to fragment the anti-BJP vote, potentially weakening the MVA alliance on close to 40 seats.
Seat-Wise Contest and Vote Split Dynamics
The VBA has put forward candidates on 39 seats, while the CPM is contesting 10 seats. This independent stance raises the strong possibility of a consequential vote split that will work against the official MVA candidates. The CPM's influence is concentrated in the Satpur and Cidco areas, where a sizable base of industrial estate workers resides. Political observers, however, note that the CPM's direct impact may be limited to only a couple of wards.
Multi-Cornered Fights and Internal Challenges
The situation becomes more complex in three specific wards where the VBA, CPM, and two of the MVA's own alliance partners are locked in multi-cornered contests. In Ward 26-D, the CPM, VBA, Shiv Sena (UBT), and the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) are all in the fray, creating a four-way division of votes that could ultimately benefit rival contenders like the BJP and the Shinde-led Shiv Sena.
Similar four-cornered fights are seen in Ward 29-D among the VBA, CPM, MNS, and UBT, and in Ward 31-A, where the VBA, CPM, UBT, and the NCP (Sharadchandra Pawar) are contesting together. Beyond these, the VBA has fielded candidates in 13 wards where the MVA had earlier attempted to maintain a friendly understanding. Compounding the challenge, the MVA faces internal friendly contests among its own constituent partners on another 14 seats.
MVA's Candidate Numbers and the Broader Picture
For the 122 seats in the civic body, the MVA constituents together have fielded 153 candidates. The break-up is: Shiv Sena (UBT) with 79, MNS with 29, Congress with 16, and NCP (Sharad Pawar) with 29. With the dual pressure of multiple internal contests and additional challenges from the VBA and CPM, the MVA is bracing for a tough battle in the polls scheduled for January 15.
Analysts suggest the VBA's impact may be felt on roughly 10 to 12 seats, primarily where the MVA has internal overlaps and the VBA is also in the contest. On a slightly positive note for the MVA, dissatisfaction among sections of BJP workers who were denied tickets due to the entry of new aspirants may marginally benefit the alliance in specific pockets.
