Monsoon deficit hits June, July outlook grim
India's monsoon rainfall in June was 39.8% below the long-period average, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD). The deficit has raised concerns over crop sowing, particularly in western and southern states where the monsoon is expected to weaken further.
IMD forecasts below-average July rains
The IMD has predicted below-average rainfall for July as well, compounding the stress on the agriculture sector. The weather office attributed the weak monsoon to unfavorable atmospheric conditions, including the absence of strong monsoon systems and a lack of low-pressure areas over the Bay of Bengal.
Impact on crop sowing
The delayed and deficient monsoon has slowed the sowing of key kharif crops such as paddy, pulses, and oilseeds. As of early July, sowing acreage was significantly lower than the normal area covered by this time. Farmers in rain-fed regions of Maharashtra, Gujarat, Rajasthan, Karnataka, and Andhra Pradesh are the most affected.
Government response and farmer distress
The government has assured farmers of adequate support, including contingency plans and timely advisories. However, the prolonged dry spell has already led to distress in several districts. According to a senior IMD official, "The monsoon is likely to remain weak over central and western India for the next two weeks, which may further delay sowing operations."
Long-term outlook
The IMD will release an updated forecast for the remainder of the monsoon season later this month. Meanwhile, water reservoir levels in key agricultural states have dropped, raising concerns about irrigation availability. The agriculture ministry is monitoring the situation and has urged states to implement drought mitigation measures.
