NEW DELHI: The Congress party in Tamil Nadu has finally shifted into action mode. After a weekend of intense brainstorming sessions in the national capital with party chief Mallikarjun Kharge and senior leader Rahul Gandhi, the Tamil Nadu Congress Committee has called for an important Executive Committee meeting tomorrow. The primary focus of this gathering will be to kickstart preparations for the upcoming 2026 Tamil Nadu assembly elections.
The Big Question: Which Way Will Congress Go?
However, a critical question hangs in the air. Has the Congress party finalized its political direction in the state? Will the grand-old party continue its long-standing alliance with the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK), even though the DMK has clearly refused to share power if the alliance wins the upcoming elections? Alternatively, will the Congress explore the possibility of forming a new coalition by joining hands with actor-politician Vijay's Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK)?
Internal Challenges Strain the Congress-DMK Alliance
The Congress-DMK alliance in Tamil Nadu currently faces one of its toughest challenges from within its own ranks. Reports indicate that the national Congress leadership has instructed state unit leaders to maintain strict alliance discipline. They have been told to avoid any confrontational political posturing against their long-standing and "trusted" ally, the DMK.
This directive emphasizing unity comes at a sensitive time. It follows some very strong remarks made by a section of the state Congress leadership after the DMK rejected the idea of a coalition government.
Congress MP Manickam Tagore Raises the Stakes
Congress MP Manickam Tagore was the first to publicly float the idea of power sharing. He stated that the time had come to discuss sharing power in the state with the DMK. When the DMK responded with a firm "no," Tagore took sharp aim at the regional ally. He accused the DMK of showing intolerance towards its coalition partners.
"We do not say 'bye-bye' to allies after elections," Manickam Tagore declared in a hard-hitting social media post. The Congress leader pointed to the United Democratic Front (UDF), the Congress-led coalition in Kerala, as an example to school the DMK on proper "coalition dharma."
In a series of Pongal messages, Tagore contrasted what he described as the DMK's "centralised mindset" with the inclusive and consultative UDF model practiced successfully in Kerala.
"No betrayal after elections, no breaking alliances after counting votes. That is the UDF difference," he asserted, describing it as "coalition dharma in action." Tagore argued that the Kerala UDF offers a hopeful template for coalition politics, where the Congress leads without monopolizing authority. He stressed that power should be shared rather than concentrated in one party's hands.
DMK's Silence and a History of Alliance
The DMK has not yet officially reacted to this escalated rhetoric from the Congress. Historically, the Congress has played second fiddle to its regional ally in Tamil Nadu. Even in 2006, when the DMK fell short of a majority by winning 96 seats, the Congress, with its 34 elected members, supported the DMK's minority government without formally joining it.
The electoral fortunes of the Congress in Tamil Nadu have been deeply intertwined with the DMK since the two parties first came together. When the DMK performs well, the Congress typically gains, and the reverse is also true. However, the grand-old party has witnessed a steady decline in its vote share in the state, dropping from 9.3% in 2011 to just 4.27% in the 2021 assembly elections.
Time for a Strategic Rethink? Weighing the Options
This decline raises a pivotal question. Has the time finally come for the Congress to fundamentally rethink its Tamil Nadu strategy? Here is a detailed look at the potential pros and cons of the party considering a major political realignment in the state.
The Potential Pros of a New Direction
- Chance for Governance: The Congress has been on the winning side in Tamil Nadu several times but has never been part of the DMK government. If the Congress leaves the DMK and manages to join a winning combination, it could finally get an opportunity to be part of the state administration.
- Distance from Controversial Stances: The DMK has often faced accusations of being anti-Hindu and anti-north, with some of its leaders making remarks that spark controversy. While this may help the DMK in Tamil Nadu, the Congress, as a national ally, is left to deal with the fallout of these statements in other parts of India where it has significant electoral stakes.
- Countering the BJP Surge: For years, the Congress was the only national party with a reasonable presence in Tamil Nadu. This scenario is changing rapidly. The BJP is working aggressively to gain ground in the state. The Congress needs to take decisive steps to prevent itself from being completely swept out of state politics by the BJP, a fate it has suffered in several other states.
- Anti-Incumbency and Corruption Charges: The DMK, which is fighting for a second consecutive term, could face strong anti-incumbency sentiment. Furthermore, several DMK leaders are facing corruption charges. These factors could adversely impact the Congress's prospects, even though it is not part of the government and has no say in policy or governance matters.
- The TVK Opportunity: The emergence of actor Vijay's TVK gives the Congress a fresh option to explore political realignment. The TVK, which is pulling out all the stops for a debut victory, has already called the Congress a "natural ally." Actor Vijay's immense popularity and his massive rallies have forced all existing political players to take serious note of his political march.
The Significant Cons of Leaving the DMK
- A Stable, Time-Tested Alliance: The Congress alliance with the DMK is stable and has stood the test of time. The Congress has gained politically from this partnership, winning seats in both assembly and Lok Sabha elections. The two parties have worked together for a long time, successfully ironing out differences. Dumping this alliance could turn out to be a very costly gamble for the Congress.
- A Crucial National Ally: The DMK has been a crucial and loyal ally for the Congress within the India bloc. With Tamil Nadu sending 39 members to the Lok Sabha, the Congress has significantly benefited from the DMK's numbers in national politics. In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections alone, the DMK won 22 seats.
- Lack of Independent Strength: The Congress lacks the kind of robust cadre support and strong organizational structure needed to pursue independent politics in Tamil Nadu. Its vote share in the state has been consistently declining in recent assembly elections, highlighting this weakness.
- The Risk with an Untested Partner: While Vijay the actor is incredibly popular, Vijay the politician remains an untested novice. Huge crowds at rallies do not always translate into votes when Tamil Nadu goes to the polls. If Vijay's party fails to perform, similar to Prashant Kishor's experience in Bihar, the Congress could end up losing a stable, long-term ally without securing any political gains. With the AIADMK already tied up with the BJP, a failed gamble could push the Congress toward political oblivion in the state.
A Tricky Decision Awaits the Leadership
For the Congress leadership, any decision regarding the DMK alliance in Tamil Nadu will be exceptionally tricky. On one hand, the party will be tempted to experiment with Vijay's TVK in the hope of achieving greater political gains and a share in power. On the other hand, it will be deeply wary of this decision backfiring and turning into a disastrously costly gamble that could weaken its position in a crucial southern state.
The upcoming Executive Committee meeting marks the beginning of a critical internal debate that will shape the Congress's future in Tamil Nadu politics.
