The recommendations of the Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister (EAC-PM) on the proposed delimitation of Lok Sabha constituencies have ignited a political debate in Andhra Pradesh, with attention shifting to the regional implications of the exercise.
Proposed Reorganisation of Seven Constituencies
The EAC-PM has recommended reorganising seven Lok Sabha constituencies in Andhra Pradesh as part of its proposed model for the next delimitation exercise. Notably, five of these seven constituencies are located in the Rayalaseema region, prompting discussions in political circles about the potential impact of the recommendations.
The constituencies recommended for division include Kadapa, Rajampet (both currently represented by the YSRCP), Nandyal, Kurnool, and Ananthapuram from Rayalaseema, as well as Visakhapatnam from north coastal Andhra Pradesh. The proposal suggests splitting Visakhapatnam, Kadapa, Nandyal, Rajampet, Kurnool, and Ananthapuram into three constituencies each, while Machilipatnam has been recommended for division into two constituencies.
Political Reactions and Implications
Although the recommendations are neither final nor binding, the proposed changes have generated interest among political parties, as delimitation could significantly alter electoral representation in the state. The opposition YSRCP, which suffered a major setback in the 2024 general elections, currently holds only three Lok Sabha seats in Andhra Pradesh. Two of these three seats come from the Rayalaseema region, adding another dimension to the political discussions surrounding the proposed restructuring.
If the EAC-PM model is implemented, Andhra Pradesh's Lok Sabha representation could increase from the existing 25 seats to 37 seats, an increase of nearly 50%. Interestingly, the panel suggests that there would be no need to alter the boundaries of 18 constituencies. The EAC-PM has proposed a targeted approach for splitting parliamentary constituencies instead of a uniform formula based solely on population.
Factors Considered in the Study
The working paper prepared by EAC-PM member Shamika Ravi and Mudit Kapoor of the Indian Statistical Institute recommends considering multiple factors, including constituency size, voter turnout patterns, and demographic composition. The study analysed Lok Sabha election data from 2009 to 2024 to establish the relationship between voter turnout and constituency characteristics. The factors considered include urban share, SC share, ST share, linguistic polarisation, and linguistic diversity.
At the national level, the EAC-PM model has recommended splitting 170 of the existing 543 Lok Sabha constituencies. Of these, 59 constituencies have been proposed for a two-way split and 111 constituencies for a three-way split.
Potential Impact on Voter Turnout
The council stated that the proposed model could increase voter turnout by up to 2.3 percentage points in the next general election. However, it clarified that the outcome would depend on the statistical model adopted, and the objective was to assess the impact of reducing electorate size while retaining the existing social and demographic composition.
The study observed that the gap in voter turnout between the smallest and largest constituencies had narrowed between 2009 and 2024. It concluded that higher turnout in smaller constituencies was linked more to demographic factors than to size alone. The EAC-PM also highlighted urbanisation as a major factor influencing voter participation, particularly among women voters. It noted that women's turnout in fully urban constituencies remained lower compared with rural constituencies.
Recommendations for Delimitation Commission
The council recommended that the Delimitation Commission, expected to be constituted after the 2027 Census, should consider demographic and linguistic profiles, along with constituency size, while deciding future boundaries. It also suggested coordination between the Election Commission of India and the Ministry of Statistics for a fresh booth rationalisation process, while ensuring timely release of the 2027 Census data and gender-disaggregated electoral statistics. The proposed exercise could reshape parliamentary representation and significantly influence Andhra Pradesh's electoral landscape.
