The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Tuesday indicated below-normal rainfall over most parts of Andhra Pradesh in June. The southwest monsoon was expected to advance into Kerala on June 4, and it is likely to enter Andhra Pradesh four to seven days after setting over Kerala.
Monsoon and Its Economic Impact
The southwest monsoon period from June to September is often seen as the backbone of the state's economy. During these four months, it delivers more than 70% of the state's annual rainfall. However, according to forecast probabilities issued by various weather agencies, there is a 60% probability of a deficit monsoon. Additionally, there is an 80% chance of the warming El Niño phenomenon developing between June and August, increasing the risk of extreme weather events.
District-Wise Rainfall Forecast
The normal rainfall for Andhra Pradesh during June, based on the 1971-2020 average, is 94.1 mm. As per the IMD, Chittoor, Tirupati, Annamayya, Sri Sathya Sai, Kadapa, and Anantapur districts may experience above-normal rainfall in June. In contrast, the remaining districts in the state are likely to record below-normal rainfall during the same period.
Temperature and Heatwave Conditions
During June, above-normal maximum and minimum temperatures are likely over most parts of the state, indicating a hotter June in many areas. The state may experience heatwave conditions in June, further complicating the situation for residents and agriculture.
Historical Context and Current Outlook
Although the southwest monsoon made an early entry into Andhra Pradesh on May 26 in 2025, arriving nine days ahead of schedule, the state recorded around 31% deficit rainfall in June 2025. This erratic rainfall hit the kharif crop operations hard. The normal rainfall during the southwest monsoon in Andhra Pradesh is 515 mm, and over 60% of farms in the state are still rain-dependent. Weathermen stated that many parts of the state are likely to receive below-normal rainfall during the southwest monsoon season this year. The expected rainfall deficiency is linked to El Niño, which weakens monsoon activity over India.
