Manipur's political landscape remains frozen as the one-year anniversary of President's Rule approaches. The central government finds itself in a difficult position, unable to form a new state government due to conflicting demands and internal disagreements.
Kuki Groups Firm on Separate Administration Demand
Kuki community representatives have taken a firm stand. They insist that their MLAs will not participate in any new state government without a written commitment from the central government regarding separate administration. This demand must be finalized before the current Legislative Assembly's term ends in 2027.
Recent meetings between Kuki-Zo insurgent groups and community MLAs in Guwahati reinforced this position. Participants resolved that joining a popular government would require a concrete political commitment for a separate Union Territory in Kuki-Zo-majority areas.
BJP's Internal Discord Complicates Matters
While the BJP's central leadership wants to form a government before February 13, when President's Rule completes one year, the party faces significant internal challenges. Multiple factions within the state unit cannot agree on a chief ministerial candidate.
Former chief minister N Biren Singh recently held discussions with central BJP leaders in Delhi. Party functionaries reveal that some members oppose government formation entirely if their preferred leader cannot become chief minister. Others support different claimants for the top position.
Security Concerns Resurface Amid Political Talks
Violence has unexpectedly increased in the Imphal Valley, coinciding with renewed efforts toward government formation. On January 5, two IED explosions occurred in Bishnupur district, injuring two people. Security officials believe local elements engineered these incidents to disrupt political negotiations.
Three days later, attackers hurled a grenade at a fuel station. Police subsequently arrested two members of the Meitei insurgent group KYKL. These security incidents further complicate the already delicate political situation.
Geographic Separation Persists
The ethnic divide between Meiteis and Kukis continues to shape Manipur's reality. Since violence erupted in May 2023, Meiteis have remained largely confined to the Imphal Valley while Kukis have retreated to hill areas. This physical separation mirrors the political divisions preventing government formation.
Central Government's Dilemma
The central government faces a complex challenge. Forming a government without Kuki MLAs would lack legitimacy, yet committing to separate administration before elections appears impractical. Officials are attempting to persuade Kuki groups to soften their stance, possibly by extending deadlines.
Union Home Ministry sources indicate that while Kuki organizations previously supported government formation, they now fear public backlash if they join without their separate administration demand being met. The government prefers avoiding an extension of President's Rule beyond one year, which would require either a National Emergency or Election Commission certification that elections cannot be held.
As February 13 approaches, all stakeholders remain locked in positions that seem increasingly difficult to reconcile. The path forward requires delicate negotiation between competing interests while maintaining security in a deeply divided state.
