As the political temperature begins to rise for the 2025 Bihar assembly elections, the Bharatiya Janata Party finds itself grappling with what insiders are calling the 'Nitish Question' - a strategic dilemma that could define the outcome of one of India's most significant state polls.
The Age Factor: A Growing Concern
At the heart of the BJP's internal deliberations is the age of Nitish Kumar, who will be 74 when voters head to the polls. Party strategists are increasingly questioning whether aligning with an aging leader aligns with their image as a party of youth and dynamism. 'There's a genuine concern about projecting fresh leadership versus sticking with established but aging partners,' reveals a senior BJP functionary who requested anonymity.
The Timing Conundrum
Political observers note that the BJP faces a tricky timing issue. While some argue it's too early to make a definitive call on the alliance, others worry that delaying the decision could create uncertainty and weaken their position. The party must balance immediate electoral calculations with long-term strategic goals in Bihar.
Risk Assessment: What's at Stake?
The risks are substantial on multiple fronts:
- Traditional Vote Bank Erosion: Moving away from Nitish could alienate certain caste groups that have traditionally supported the JD(U)-BJP combine
- Leadership Vacuum: The BJP lacks a clear chief ministerial face in Bihar that could match Nitish Kumar's stature
- Opposition Unity: A split in the NDA could benefit the opposition Mahagathbandhan, particularly Tejashwi Yadav's RJD
The Modi Factor and Larger National Picture
Complicating the decision is the need to maintain the perception of Narendra Modi's invincibility. A poor performance in Bihar could have ripple effects on national politics and the 2024 general elections. The BJP's central leadership is carefully weighing whether the Nitish alliance strengthens or weakens their pan-India narrative.
Alternative Scenarios in Play
Party insiders suggest several options are being considered:
- Status Quo Plus: Continuing the alliance but with greater BJP control over seat distribution
- Gradual Transition: Supporting Nitish for one more term while building alternative leadership
- Strategic Break: Going solo or with smaller allies to establish direct BJP governance
The final decision, expected in the coming months, will reveal much about the BJP's assessment of its strength in Bihar and its vision for the state's political future. As one political analyst noted, 'How the BJP resolves the Nitish question will demonstrate whether the party prioritizes immediate electoral gains or long-term political dominance in Bihar.'
