A recent social media post by Congress data analytics head Praveen Chakravarty has ignited a fierce political controversy in Tamil Nadu, extending far beyond a debate on fiscal numbers. On December 28, Chakravarty described the state's debt position as "alarming," citing its high absolute outstanding liabilities, rising interest burden, and debt-to-GSDP ratio. His analysis, shared on platform X, has triggered a complex discussion intertwining economics, alliance politics, and the Congress party's future in the state.
The Fiscal Argument: Is Tamil Nadu's Debt Truly Alarming?
In his detailed post, Chakravarty pointed out that Tamil Nadu now holds the highest outstanding debt of all Indian states. He highlighted a significant shift, noting that while Uttar Pradesh had more than double Tamil Nadu's debt in 2010, the southern state has now surpassed UP. He further stated that Tamil Nadu's interest burden is the third highest after Punjab and Haryana, and its debt-to-GDP ratio remains elevated compared to pre-pandemic levels.
However, several economic experts have challenged this characterization, urging a more nuanced view. M Suresh Babu, Director of the Madras Institute of Development Studies, argued that evaluating absolute debt figures without context is misleading. "What matters is not the size of the economy or debt in isolation, but how those numbers relate to underlying capacity," he explained.
Babu, a former adviser to the Prime Minister's Economic Advisory Council, emphasized that Tamil Nadu is one of India's fastest-growing state economies, with a robust manufacturing base, a diversified services sector, and high urbanization. These factors, he contends, enhance the state's capacity to service debt. "Globally, many advanced economies carry high levels of debt. What determines sustainability is not the number itself, but whether that debt is productive," Babu stated, calling the recent commentary "somewhat sensationalised."
A Political Storm Brews Within the Congress
The controversy's core, however, is deeply political. Chakravarty's remarks arrived at a sensitive juncture, as the Congress party begins preliminary negotiations for the 2026 Assembly elections with its longstanding ally, the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK). For decades, the Congress has played a subordinate role in Tamil Nadu's Dravidian-dominated politics, a reality that has caused growing restlessness among a section of its state leadership.
This internal unease was amplified by Chakravarty's recent confirmed meeting with popular actor-politician Vijay, founder of the Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK). While Chakravarty termed the interaction "informal," many within his own party interpreted it as a signal of willingness to explore alternative political alignments. A senior Tamil Nadu Congress leader expressed dismay, stating, "It creates confusion. Chakravarty has already done the unpardonable things to the DMK government."
The situation prompted a swift and public intervention from senior Congress leader P. Chidambaram. On Thursday, the former finance minister firmly reaffirmed the party's commitment to the DMK-led alliance, aiming to quell speculation. When asked about Chakravarty's tweet, Chidambaram sarcastically remarked, "I don't want to engage in a public discussion with intellectuals. I don't think I am qualified enough," while pointing to central data showing Tamil Nadu's high nominal growth.
Crossroads for the Congress in Tamil Nadu
The episode has laid bare a significant rift within the Congress regarding its Tamil Nadu strategy. According to party sources, a faction believes the party gains little from its junior partnership with the DMK and is actively pressing the central leadership, including Rahul Gandhi, to consider an alliance with Vijay's TVK. This group, reportedly including figures like Manickam Tagore and Tamil Nadu Congress Legislature Party leader S. Rajesh Kumar, is said to be backed by senior central leader K.C. Venugopal.
Proponents of this shift argue that an alliance with TVK could potentially offer the Congress a larger share of seats—claims of up to 50 have been suggested—and also boost its prospects in Kerala, where Vijay enjoys a substantial fan following. A senior Congress leader revealed, "A section is trying to make Rahul Gandhi believe that Vijay is going to be the next Tamil Nadu CM, and alliance with TVK will ensure a Congress CM in Puducherry."
Meanwhile, the DMK has watched these developments with concern, particularly as the Congress high command in Delhi appears hesitant to firmly rein in what is seen as a parallel political engagement. The coming months will be critical in determining whether the Congress chooses to solidify its traditional alliance or embarks on a risky new path, with its data chief's fiscal critique serving as the unlikely catalyst for this profound internal debate.
