Kochi's Political Chessboard: UDF Grapples with Candidate Selection Ahead of Assembly Polls
With assembly elections just months away, major political fronts in Ernakulam district have started the herculean task of fielding "winnable" candidates. The United Democratic Front (UDF) has begun complex internal negotiations ahead of the crucial polls. While all incumbent MLAs are likely to get another chance, the spotlight shines brightly on two high-stakes battlegrounds: Tripunithura and Kalamassery.
Kalamassery: A Traditional Stronghold Under Pressure
Kalamassery is considered a traditional stronghold of the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML). Despite finishing as runner-up in 2021 to LDF's P Rajeeve by a margin of 15,336 votes, IUML plans to field V E Abdul Gafoor once again. League state secretary Mohammed Shah is also in the race for this coveted seat.
Gafoor, son of the late former minister V K Ebrahimkunju, carries the weight of a significant political legacy. However, the Congress camp has other plans for Kalamassery. Ernakulam District Congress Committee (DCC) president Mohammed Shiyas has reportedly expressed strong interest in contesting from this seat. He enjoys the backing of opposition leader V D Satheesan.
This development has sparked a heated debate over potential seat exchange within the UDF. One proposal involves IUML trading Kalamassery for the Kochi seat. The League appears hesitant about this arrangement. Recent delimitation has fundamentally altered the Kochi constituency's demographic composition.
Muslim-majority pockets have been limited to Mattancherry and Fort Kochi areas. Meanwhile, the constituency saw the addition of 'Latin belt' regions including Kannamaly, Kumbalangi and Chellanam. For IUML, losing a secure demographic base in exchange for a volatile coastal belt represents a risky political proposition.
Tripunithura: Leadership Transition and Rising Stakes
In Tripunithura, the UDF faces an unexpected leadership transition. Sitting MLA K Babu has reportedly opted out of the race, citing his age as the primary reason. This vacancy has invited interest from several hopefuls including actor-politician Ramesh Pisharody and DCC general secretary Raju P Nair.
Political stakes in Tripunithura remain exceptionally high. In the 2021 elections, Babu won by a razor-thin margin of just 1,232 votes against LDF's M Swaraj. With the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) steadily increasing its vote share in the region—crossing 15% in the last electoral cycle—the political landscape has become more competitive.
The LDF is rumoured to be scouting for big hitters like former Kochi mayor M Anilkumar to reclaim this crucial seat. The contest could potentially become a star battle with BJP considering fielding actor Unni Mukundan as their candidate.
Other Constituencies: Strategic Calculations
Meanwhile, in Thrikkakara, Uma Thomas remains the undisputed first choice for the UDF. She is expected to hold fort in what is considered a safe seat for the alliance.
In Vypeen, though senior leader Ajay Tharayil has evinced interest, the UDF aims to disrupt LDF's hold under sitting MLA K N Unnikrishnan. KPCC general secretary Deepthi Mary Varghese, who recently lost the Kochi mayor race by a narrow margin, has demanded the Kochi constituency. She has reportedly approached the central leadership with her request.
Latin Catholic votes represent a significant factor for the UDF in this region. Former mayor Tony Chammany is also scouting for the Kochi constituency. Congress insiders reveal that the party camp is considering both Varghese and Chammany for the Vypeen constituency as well, particularly if the race for Kochi intensifies further.
The Balancing Act: Regional Aspirations vs Winnable Faces
The UDF's electoral victory depends heavily on its ability to balance IUML's regional aspirations with Congress's need to field winnable faces in shifting demographic landscapes. Whether IUML accepts a compensatory seat in Malappuram or Kasaragod to allow Shiyas a run in Kalamassery remains an open question.
These complex negotiations highlight the intricate political calculations underway as Kerala prepares for another intense electoral battle. The final candidate lists will reveal much about each party's strategic priorities and their assessment of changing voter demographics across Ernakulam's diverse constituencies.
