NEW DELHI: Raghav Chadha's exit from the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) did not come as a surprise. Nor, perhaps, did his decision to join the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Chadha's political moves were widely anticipated after he was removed from the post of deputy leader in the Rajya Sabha last month, openly challenging party leadership, particularly Arvind Kejriwal.
However, what did come as a surprise was the vengeance with which Chadha hit back, effectively obliterating AAP's presence in the Upper House. Clearly, significant groundwork had been done before he delivered the final blow. In retrospect, his remark after the demotion, "Ghayal hoon, par Ghatak hoon" (I am wounded, but deadly), was perhaps an indication of his plans.
Chadha did not merely quit AAP; he ensured the merger of Kejriwal's party with the BJP in the Rajya Sabha by securing the support of two-thirds of AAP MPs—seven out of ten. Addressing a press conference after announcing the revolt, Chadha stated, "We have decided that we, the two-thirds members belonging to AAP in Rajya Sabha, exercise the provisions of the Constitution of India and merge ourselves with the BJP."
The six other MPs who quit the party include Sandeep Pathak, Ashok Mittal, Harbhajan Singh, Rajinder Gupta, Vikram Sahney, and Swati Maliwal. Notably, the list includes Ashok Mittal, who had replaced Chadha as the deputy leader of AAP in Rajya Sabha and had hosted Kejriwal at his residence in Delhi just a day earlier. Mittal, founder chancellor of Lovely Professional University, faced Enforcement Directorate (ED) raids soon after his elevation. Searches were also conducted at properties linked to the university and Mittal's family members, reportedly in connection with a money laundering probe.
Reactions and Allegations
The AAP reacted strongly, accusing the BJP of "Operation Lotus," a term used to describe engineered defections of political rivals. AAP leader Sanjay Singh alleged that central agencies like the ED and the Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) were misused to pressure AAP leaders into leaving. AAP chief Arvind Kejriwal accused the BJP of betraying Punjab, the only state now governed by AAP, which faces assembly elections next year.
Impact on Punjab
After losing Delhi to the BJP last year, AAP leaders, including Kejriwal, have focused on Punjab. Assembly elections are due in 2026, and Kejriwal has spent considerable time in the state strategizing with Chief Minister Bhagwant Mann. Chadha played a crucial role in AAP's 2022 Punjab victory and remained central to party activities for nearly three years. However, in March 2025, Kejriwal replaced Jarnail Singh and Chadha with Manish Sisodia and Satyendra Jain as party incharge and co-incharge for Punjab.
The big question remains: Will this mass exodus weaken AAP in Punjab? Has Chadha also done groundwork among AAP MLAs in the state? Chief Minister Bhagwant Mann dismissed the impact, saying, "Ginger, garlic, cumin, fenugreek powder, red chili, black pepper, and coriander—these seven things together make the vegetable taste great, but on their own, they can't become a 'vegetable.'" He added, "None of them is capable of becoming even a village sarpanch on their own merit. The party is bigger than any individual. These six to seven people who have left do not comprise Punjab. They were not mass leaders."
Rhetoric aside, Kejriwal's first priority will be to ensure the loyalty of AAP's 92 MLAs in the 117-member assembly. While this number is large enough to prevent an immediate threat to the Mann government, the upcoming elections may prompt some MLAs to explore options with the BJP, which is expanding its base in the state.
Can the BJP Gain in Punjab?
This is an interesting debate. The BJP, once a junior ally of the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) for decades, has been trying to expand its base after the alliance broke over the farmers' bills. Since then, the BJP has relied on Congress imports, roping in leaders like former Chief Minister Captain Amarinder Singh and Sunil Jakhar. With Chadha now in its fold, the BJP hopes to attract disgruntled AAP leaders.
But will these imports be enough to propel the BJP to power? In the 2017 assembly elections, the BJP won three seats with a 5.4% vote share. In 2022, it managed only two seats with a 6.6% vote share. The BJP's strategists hope to replicate its West Bengal performance, where the party increased its tally from three seats in 2016 to 77 in 2021, with a vote share jump from 10.3% to 38.4%.
The Congress Factor
While the West Bengal leap gives the BJP hope, Punjab may be different. The Congress still has significant presence and vote share. In 2022, Congress won 18 seats with a 23.1% vote share, down from 77 seats and 38.8% in 2017. Leadership tussles involving Captain Amarinder Singh and Navjot Singh Sidhu hurt the party. The SAD also managed an 18.5% vote share in 2022 despite winning only three seats.
Given these numbers, the Congress might be better positioned to benefit from a weakened AAP, provided it controls infighting. The BJP, however, will go all out to maximize gains after roping in Chadha and other AAP MPs. The saffron party can also take heart from West Bengal, where Congress and Left had significant presence in 2016 but were still decimated.
Thus, while AAP firefights after Chadha's coup, both the BJP and Congress hope to gain. Kejriwal and AAP will play the victim card to maximize gains from the loss of their MPs.
