Tamil Nadu's Political Chessboard: DMK Holds Steady as AIADMK-BJP Weigh Vijay Factor
With elections just a couple of months away, Tamil Nadu's political scene remains remarkably fluid. Multiple possibilities and combinations are still in play, making this southern state the most unpredictable among the four going to polls.
DMK's Confident Stance Amid Alliance Concerns
The ruling DMK, led by Chief Minister M K Stalin, maintains strong confidence in its position. The party has progressed smoothly in seat-sharing talks with allies like the Left parties and the Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi (VCK) under Thol Thirumavalavan.
However, the Congress party presents a different challenge. A section within the state Congress remains dissatisfied with the alliance dynamics. These leaders view actor Vijay's Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) as a viable alternative to break their political stagnation.
The Congress has participated in the DMK alliance for over two decades without gaining any share in power. Even if the DMK wins again, Congress won't join the government unless a pre-poll agreement guarantees ministerial positions.
Congress leaders express frustration about their party's diminishing identity and limited growth opportunities under the DMK's shadow. Their organizational strength in Tamil Nadu has become almost negligible, and they lack a strong lineup of local leaders.
Speculation about Congress exploring alternatives gained momentum during Rahul Gandhi's recent visit. The Leader of Opposition didn't mention Stalin in his public remarks and expressed support for Vijay during the actor's battle with the Censor Board.
Despite this, the Congress high command clarified on Saturday that it doesn't want to risk the existing alliance. Even pro-DMK leaders within Congress want Stalin to discuss a larger seat share to keep party workers motivated.
AIADMK's Strategic Dilemma
The main opposition AIADMK faces a crucial decision. The party must choose between expanding the NDA tent to include Vijay's TVK or attempting to defeat the DMK with its current coalition partner, the BJP.
Some BJP members believe leaving AIADMK free to ally with TVK creates the best winning combination. They argue the BJP could always partner with them after elections, paving the way for future growth in Tamil Nadu.
However, the BJP's central leadership remains undecided about this approach. The AIADMK-BJP alliance itself faces internal tensions, with many AIADMK leaders viewing it as a forced partnership that could backfire electorally.
The 2021 Assembly election results highlight the challenge. While AIADMK won 66 of 191 contested seats with a 33.5% vote share, the BJP managed only four wins from 20 seats with a mere 2.6% vote share.
Former Chief Minister Edappadi K Palaniswami insisted until November 2024 that his party wouldn't reunite with the BJP. The two parties had split in 2023 after friction caused by state BJP president Annamalai's attempts to expand in the Kongu region, a core AIADMK support base.
However, in April 2025, Palaniswami and Union Home Minister Amit Shah announced their partnership for the 2026 polls. This followed Annamalai's replacement by Nainar Nagendran as state BJP president.
Palaniswami later clarified that even if the coalition wins, it would be a single-party AIADMK government. The BJP continues pushing for a power-sharing agreement, recently informing Palaniswami during his Delhi visit that they want three ministerial berths if they unseat the DMK.
The Vijay Factor and Smaller Parties
Actor-turned-politician Vijay finds himself at the center of Tamil Nadu's political calculations. His TVK party has developed warm relations with Rahul Gandhi and generally supports Congress positions.
Vijay has centered his politics around anti-BJP themes, resisting pressure to join the NDA. However, the Karur stampede investigation, where Vijay faced CBI questioning regarding 41 deaths, appears to have forced him to build connections with the BJP.
The BJP sees significant potential in Vijay's support base of young voters. Party strategists believe his popularity combined with AIADMK's organizational strength and BJP's resources could create a winning formula.
The Censor certificate controversy around Vijay's film "Jana Nayagan" has complicated matters. Opposition parties allege these troubles were stirred up at the BJP's behest, potentially damaging AIADMK's prospects among Vijay's substantial fanbase.
The BJP also pressures AIADMK to invite expelled leaders O Panneerselvam and T T V Dhinakaran, along with MDMK's Premalatha Vijaykanth, into the NDA fold. These smaller groups seek power and resource sharing, potentially creating a broader anti-DMK front.
DMK's Strengths and Challenges
The DMK benefits from the Stalin government's popular welfare initiatives. Schemes like Vidiyal Payanam (Free Bus Travel) and Kalaignar Magalir Urimai Thittam (Monthly Financial Assistance) have bolstered the government's popularity.
The opposition's failure to establish a strong anti-government narrative has worked in the DMK's favor. Within the ruling coalition, pragmatists argue the government may not feel significant impact even if Congress exits the alliance.
As Tamil Nadu approaches elections, all major players continue their strategic calculations. The DMK maintains its steady course while opposition forces explore various combinations, with actor Vijay's political entry adding new dimensions to an already complex political landscape.
