Chess World Cup Delivers Shockwaves as Top Seeds Fall
The ongoing FIDE World Cup in Goa has become a graveyard for favorites, with fifteen of the top 20 seeds eliminated in the early stages. This unprecedented level of unpredictability set the stage for a remarkable display of failed prognostication by one of chess's most prominent figures.
Nakamura's Bold Predictions Go Awry
Despite the tournament's chaotic nature, American Grandmaster Hikaru Nakamura confidently made eight specific predictions during his live stream about key match outcomes. The chess world watched in astonishment as six of his eight forecasts proved incorrect, demonstrating how thoroughly the World Cup has defied conventional expectations.
Nakamura expressed particular confidence in Indian Grandmaster Pentala Harikrishna, describing him as "someone who knows how to grind" and noting their long-standing acquaintance from youth tournaments. Despite acknowledging Martinez's strength in rapid and blitz formats, Nakamura predicted Harikrishna would prevail in the classical portion. Contrary to this expectation, Harikrishna lost in just 30 moves, marking Martinez's third higher-rated victory in the tournament.
Favorite After Favorite Falls Short
The pattern of unexpected outcomes continued throughout Nakamura's predictions. He declared Russia's Daniil Dubov as his favorite to win the entire tournament, citing his exceptional rapid and blitz skills and expecting him to defeat Sam Shankland. Instead, Shankland breached Dubov's defenses, eliminating the player who had previously taken out Indian prodigy R Praggnanandhaa.
Other incorrect predictions included Alexander Donchenko's upset victory over Le Quang Liem and Chinese player Wei Yi's triumph over Nakamura's compatriot Sam Sevian. Nakamura described the clash between Levon Aronian and Arjun Erigaisi as completely open, while admitting he was rooting for Aronian for similar reasons as his support for Harikrishna. Ultimately, Erigaisi emerged victorious, becoming the sole Indian hope remaining in the competition.
The Few Correct Calls
Amid the string of incorrect predictions, Nakamura did correctly forecast two outcomes. He accurately predicted that Javokhir Sindarov would defeat Frederik Svane and that Nodirbek Yakubboev would ease past Gabriel Sargissian. These two correct calls provided the only relief in an otherwise disastrous prediction record that highlighted the tournament's capacity for surprises.
The dramatic upsets have significant implications for the prestigious Candidates tournament, with the top three finishers in the World Cup qualifying. Martinez's continued surprising performance now places him within touching distance of a Candidates spot, representing one of the tournament's most compelling storylines.
