Toronto Raptors vs Oklahoma City Thunder: High-Stakes NBA Clash on January 25, 2026

The NBA schedule brings a compelling matchup on January 25, 2026, as the Toronto Raptors travel to Oklahoma City to face the Thunder. This game carries significant weight for both franchises, with playoff positioning and team momentum on the line. Oklahoma City enters with the league's best record at an impressive 37–9, establishing themselves as championship contenders. Meanwhile, Toronto sits at 28–19, looking to strengthen their position in the competitive Eastern Conference playoff race.

Injury Updates and Roster Impact for Both Teams

Both teams face significant lineup questions due to injuries, making this matchup more unpredictable than the records might suggest.

For the Toronto Raptors, three key players are listed as questionable:

Gradey Dick is dealing with an ankle issue that could limit his mobility and shooting
Immanuel Quickley is listed for rest management, potentially affecting Toronto's backcourt depth
Scottie Barnes remains under knee management protocols, with his availability being crucial as he drives much of Toronto's offense and rebounding

The Oklahoma City Thunder face more severe injury challenges:

Jalen Williams is out, creating a significant gap in the Thunder's rotation
Isaiah Hartenstein is unavailable, limiting interior depth
Kenrich Williams is also sidelined, further testing Oklahoma City's bench strength

These absences put tremendous pressure on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to carry the offensive load through both scoring and playmaking responsibilities.

Historical Head-to-Head Results and Team Dynamics

Historically, Oklahoma City has dominated this matchup with a 36–21 all-time record against Toronto. The Thunder have won the last four meetings between these teams, and over their past 20 games, Oklahoma City holds a 13–7 advantage, including strong performances at home.

Recent season results show:

2024-25 season: Oklahoma City won both meetings (2-0)
2023-24 season: Thunder swept the series (2-0)
2022-23 season: Teams split the series (1-1)

Key Statistical Comparisons and Team Strengths

Oklahoma City's success this season stems from their elite defense, as they lead the NBA in scoring defense by allowing just 104.8 points per game. Offensively, they rank near the top of the league with 118.2 points per game (3rd in NBA). Shai Gilgeous-Alexander averages an impressive 32.5 points per game, while Chet Holmgren anchors the interior with strong rebounding and rim protection.

Toronto relies more on balanced contributions across their roster. Scottie Barnes averages 22.1 points and 8.5 rebounds, with Immanuel Quickley adding 18.7 points when available. The Raptors shoot well from three-point range but have shown vulnerability on the road defensively, which could prove problematic against Oklahoma City's transition game.

Key statistical comparisons include:

Points Per Game: Thunder 118.2 (3rd) vs Raptors 114.5 (9th)
Opponent Points Per Game: Thunder 104.8 (1st) vs Raptors 110.2 (12th)
Rebounds Per Game: Thunder 45.1 (5th) vs Raptors 43.8 (10th)
Three-Point Percentage: Thunder 37.2% (8th) vs Raptors 36.8% (11th)

Game-Deciding Factors and Prediction

Several key factors will determine the outcome of this high-stakes matchup:

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's ability to control the game's pace and attack Toronto's guards represents the primary challenge for the Raptors. His combination of scoring and playmaking could overwhelm Toronto's defense, especially if they're missing key perimeter defenders.

Chet Holmgren's shot-blocking presence will challenge Scottie Barnes and other Raptors players around the rim, potentially disrupting Toronto's interior offense. Holmgren's defensive impact extends beyond individual matchups, as he alters shots throughout the game.

For Toronto to compete, their outside shooting must be effective, particularly from three-point range. Bench scoring will be crucial, especially if Gradey Dick is available to provide offensive spark. The Raptors need to limit Oklahoma City's transition opportunities and maintain defensive discipline throughout the game.

Considering Oklahoma City's defensive dominance, home-court advantage, and historical success against Toronto, the Thunder hold the edge in this matchup. The projected outcome favors Oklahoma City with a 115–108 victory. However, if Toronto receives healthier minutes from their starters and shoots exceptionally well from deep, an upset remains within reach, making this one of the more intriguing games on the NBA calendar.