With eight games remaining in the league stage of IPL 2024, Lucknow Super Giants (LSG) and Mumbai Indians (MI) have already been eliminated from playoff contention. Royal Challengers Bengaluru (RCB) have secured their qualification, while Gujarat Titans (GT) can only miss out through net run rate. Sunrisers Hyderabad (SRH) would need a drastic downturn to miss the playoffs. Chennai Super Kings (CSK) and Rajasthan Royals (RR) have slightly less than even chances of finishing in the top four on points. Punjab Kings (PBKS) have about a one-in-three chance. Kolkata Knight Riders (KKR) and Delhi Capitals (DC) improved their prospects with weekend wins but still lag behind the others.
There are now 256 possible combinations of results, meaning nothing is certain for any of the seven teams still in the race. Let's examine the probabilities for each team.
Royal Challengers Bengaluru (RCB)
RCB are now guaranteed to qualify and to at least finish tied for first in terms of points. Their worst-case scenario is a three-way tie for first with GT and SRH.
Gujarat Titans (GT)
GT are assured of finishing within the top four in points but could still miss the playoffs. This could happen through a four-way tie for second with SRH, CSK, and RR on 16 points. However, GT currently have the best net run rate among these four teams.
Sunrisers Hyderabad (SRH)
SRH have an 87.9% chance of finishing in the top four on points and a 50% chance of being among the top two.
Chennai Super Kings (CSK)
CSK's chances of being in the top four on points stand at 44.9%, with a 25% chance of ending up tied for second with one to three other teams.
Rajasthan Royals (RR)
After Sunday's loss, RR's chances of finishing in the top four on points are 44.5%, with a 9.4% chance of being among the top two tied with two or three other teams.
Punjab Kings (PBKS)
Following Sunday's loss, PBKS's chances of reaching the top four on points have dropped to 35.2%. They can no longer hope to even tie for one of the top two slots.
Delhi Capitals (DC)
DC's chances of making the top four singly or jointly are now 19.5% after Sunday's win, but they too cannot tie for the top two slots.
Kolkata Knight Riders (KKR)
KKR's chances of making the top four singly or jointly stand at 18%, but like PBKS and DC, they cannot tie for the top two slots.
How the Probabilities Are Calculated
With eight games remaining, there are 256 possible combinations of results. For each team, we counted how many of these combinations result in them being among the top four (singly or tied) and how many put them in the top two (singly or jointly). For instance, RCB finish at number one on points in all 256 combinations, either as sole leaders or joint leaders.
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