ICRIER-OpenAI Study: AI Enhances Productivity, Not Mass Job Losses in Indian IT
A groundbreaking study conducted by the Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations (ICRIER), with support from OpenAI, has provided significant reassurance regarding the impact of artificial intelligence on employment in India's IT sector. Contrary to widespread fears, the research indicates that generative AI is not currently triggering mass layoffs. Instead, it is fundamentally reshaping work organization, boosting productivity, and transforming existing job roles.
Comprehensive Survey Across 650 IT Firms
The study's conclusions are based on an extensive survey of 650 IT firms spread across ten major Indian cities. This research was conducted between November 2025 and January 2026, providing a contemporary snapshot of the industry. The investigation meticulously examined multiple critical areas including:
- Current hiring trends and patterns
- Shifts in occupational demand across different skill levels
- Measurable productivity outcomes from AI implementation
- Evolving workforce skilling and training patterns
Titled 'AI and Jobs: This Time is No Different', the study presents a compelling argument that artificial intelligence is amplifying overall output and strengthening the position of skilled professionals rather than replacing them entirely.
Modest Hiring Slowdown at Entry Level, Stability at Senior Levels
The research revealed that while firms have reported a modest slowdown in hiring, this effect is primarily concentrated at the entry level. Recruitment for mid-level and senior positions has remained remarkably stable. Researchers emphasized that this moderation aligns with broader post-pandemic trends within the IT sector and cannot be attributed solely to AI adoption.
Productivity Enhancement Over Job Elimination
One of the most significant findings challenges conventional wisdom about automation vulnerability. Roles that are widely perceived as being at high risk of automation—such as software developers and database administrators—are actually experiencing some of the strongest growth in demand. The study clearly demonstrates that generative AI is functioning primarily as a productivity-enhancing tool that complements technical and analytical work, rather than serving as a direct substitute for human labor.
Ronnie Chatterji, chief economist at OpenAI, provided crucial insights based on the data. "We are witnessing a fundamental shift in how work is organized, where AI appears to be complementing human talent rather than replacing it," Chatterji stated in comments to news agency PTI. "This data offers a valuable window into the transition currently underway in India's technology landscape."
Chatterji further emphasized the need for proactive adaptation, noting that "the focus should now shift to the practical steps needed to help workers align their skills with the advancing capabilities of AI." He highlighted a significant opportunity for growth, revealing that currently only 4 percent of firms have trained more than half their workforce in AI technologies.
Evidence-Based Reassurance for Policymakers
Shekhar Aiyar, director and chief executive of ICRIER, addressed the often polarized debate surrounding AI and employment. "Everyone has strong opinions on this matter," Aiyar observed, "but the ICRIER-OpenAI research brings concrete evidence to the table." The authors combined comprehensive survey data with in-depth interviews of leaders across the Indian IT industry to assess the real-world impact of generative AI implementation.
Aiyar offered a balanced perspective for policymakers, stating that "the results should reassure Indian policymakers without inducing complacency." He cautioned that while the IT sector appears to be handling AI adoption reasonably well at present, many firms remain inadequately prepared for future technological shifts and workforce transformations.
The study represents a crucial contribution to understanding how emerging technologies are reshaping India's vital IT sector, providing data-driven insights that counter alarmist narratives while highlighting areas requiring strategic attention and investment in workforce development.
