China is quietly designing a financial market where companies can trade AI tokens, the smallest unit of data that AI models process. This move is squarely aimed at keeping pace with the United States in the rapidly evolving artificial intelligence sector. According to Reuters, the Shanghai Futures Exchange is in the early stages of building futures contracts tied to these tokens, which are central to how AI services are priced. This approach differs from the one Wall Street is pursuing, and the timing is not coincidental.
Current Status of the Plans
The exchange's research is preliminary, two people familiar with the matter told Reuters, and it is driven partly by the AI rivalry with Washington. There is no launch date yet, and the plan could still change. The exchange has not indicated when it will seek regulatory approval, and neither it nor China's securities regulator responded to Reuters' request for comment.
Why China Wants a Token Market Now
The numbers explain the urgency. China's daily token usage has jumped 1,000-fold since the start of 2024, exceeding 140 trillion by the end of March, according to official data. Tokens are essentially the digital fuel that powers AI models, and demand has outstripped supply. Compute shortages have already forced several Chinese AI firms to ration user access in recent months.
That scramble is why hedging matters. Futures contracts would let companies across the AI supply chain lock in costs and protect themselves against wild price swings, similar to how airlines hedge jet fuel. BlackRock CEO Larry Fink stated this month that surging token demand could spawn an entirely new asset class built around compute.
How the US is Playing It Differently
America is pursuing a different path. CME Group and Intercontinental Exchange are preparing GPU compute futures, tied to the cost of renting the raw computing power behind AI rather than the tokens themselves. Shanghai's product would price the tokens directly. Both approaches chase the same goal but reflect different views on where the real chokepoint lies.
The stakes are being framed in stark terms. Yilei Shao, dean of the Shanghai AI-Finance School at East China Normal University, told Reuters that China should move sooner rather than later, calling token futures central to the contest over AI and semiconductors. "The United States and China are the only two nations capable of mass-producing artificial intelligence," she said.
Market Dynamics and Challenges
The push comes as the cost of running AI faces fresh scrutiny. So-called "tokenmaxxing," where firms burn through tokens to chase productivity, has triggered a backlash, with executives at Uber and others questioning whether the spending pays off. A token market would give that anxiety a place to trade.
For now, China is expected to debut compute futures within three to five years, brokerage Baocheng Futures said this month, though it warned the fragmented market remains a hurdle. The race, however, has clearly begun.
