Tesla's California Robotaxi Ambitions Face Regulatory Reality Check
For over a year, Tesla CEO Elon Musk has repeatedly stated that the electric vehicle giant is merely months away from launching a fully driverless robotaxi service in California, pending only regulatory approval. However, newly revealed records from the California Department of Motor Vehicles (DMV) paint a starkly different picture, showing the company took no concrete steps in 2025 to advance that process.
Zero Test Miles and Permit Stagnation
According to the state DMV, Tesla logged zero miles of autonomous test driving on public roads in 2025. This marks the sixth consecutive year without any reported autonomous test mileage. Under California's established regulatory framework, companies must accumulate significant test miles and secure a series of escalating permits before they can operate commercial, driverless ride-hailing services. Alphabet's Waymo has successfully navigated this process.
Tesla currently holds only the most basic, entry-level DMV permit, which allows for testing with a human safety driver behind the wheel. A DMV spokesperson confirmed that Tesla has not applied for any additional permits required to progress toward a driverless service. Proposed state rules would mandate at least 50,000 miles of supervised autonomous testing before a company can even apply for approval to begin driverless testing.
A History of Minimal Testing
Tesla's testing history in the state is remarkably sparse. The company has not reported any autonomous test miles since 2019. In total, since 2016, Tesla has logged only 562 miles of such testing in California. This stands in dramatic contrast to its primary competitor in the space.
Waymo, by comparison, has logged more than 13 million test miles in California between 2014 and 2023. It secured seven regulatory approvals during that period and, in 2023, was cleared to charge passengers for fully driverless rides. Waymo is one of only three companies with California permits to commercially operate driverless vehicles and is the sole entity running a robotaxi fleet at any significant scale.
Valuation Hinges on Autonomous Future
The stakes for Tesla are enormous. A substantial portion of its market valuation, which has surpassed $1.5 trillion, is predicated on investor expectations that it will successfully deploy large-scale robotaxi services and expand sales of its premium autonomous-driving software. California, as the largest automobile market in the United States, is considered central to these ambitious plans.
"Tesla's public messaging often suggests that regulators are the primary obstacle," said Bryant Walker Smith, a law professor at the University of South Carolina who has advised the DMV. "The reality appears to be that regulators are ready to evaluate applications, but Tesla is not."
Tesla's Current Services and Regulatory Critique
Tesla did not respond to requests for comment on the DMV records. On an October earnings call, Musk emphasized that the company takes a cautious approach to safety and market entry. Currently, Tesla operates a limited pilot robotaxi service in Austin, Texas. In the San Francisco Bay Area, it launched what it described as a robotaxi service in July. However, this service functions essentially as a chauffeur service, with human drivers utilizing Tesla's "Full Self-Driving" driver-assistance system, which is not a fully autonomous technology.
Tesla has been openly critical of California's proposed robotaxi regulations, questioning the logic behind minimum mileage requirements and specific reporting obligations. Musk has also pointed to the state's lengthy approval process as a significant hurdle. In October 2024, he expressed confidence, stating he would be "shocked" if Tesla did not receive approval the following year. Yet, as the DMV records for 2025 indicate, the outcome remains largely outside the company's immediate control without demonstrated testing progress.
