In a dramatic shift for the global smartphone industry, Apple is poised to dethrone Samsung as the world's leading smartphone manufacturer for the first time in 14 years, driven by unexpectedly strong iPhone 17 series sales.
Record Shipments Projected for 2025
According to fresh analysis from Counterpoint Research, Apple is projected to ship 243 million smartphones in 2025, surpassing Samsung's estimated 235 million units. This would mark the first time since 2011 that Apple claims the top position in global smartphone shipments.
The research firm attributes this remarkable turnaround primarily to the market's enthusiastic response to the iPhone 17 series, which has exceeded expectations across key regions including the United States and China.
iPhone 17 Series Driving Unprecedented Growth
The newly launched iPhone 17 lineup has demonstrated exceptional performance in critical markets. US sales during the first four weeks of release surged 12 percent compared to the iPhone 16 series, while Chinese markets witnessed an even more impressive 18 percent growth over the previous model series.
Counterpoint Research Senior Analyst Yang Wang highlighted another crucial factor behind this upgraded shipment outlook. "The replacement cycle has reached its inflection point," Wang noted, explaining that consumers who purchased smartphones during the COVID-19 boom are now entering their natural upgrade phase.
iPhone shipments are projected to rise by 10 percent in 2025, dramatically outpacing the overall smartphone market's expected growth of just 3.3 percent.
Samsung Faces Multiple Challenges
While Apple celebrates its resurgence, Samsung confronts significant headwinds. The South Korean tech giant faces intensified competition from Chinese brands in the low-to-mid-range segment, which could further undermine its market position.
Counterpoint's forecast extends beyond 2025, predicting that Apple will maintain its leadership position through 2029, suggesting this isn't a temporary fluctuation but a sustained market realignment.
Beyond iPhone 17: Additional Growth Catalysts
The used iPhone market represents another substantial growth area for Apple. Between 2023 and the second quarter of 2025, a staggering 358 million second-hand iPhones were sold, creating a massive ecosystem that supports new device adoption.
Interestingly, Counterpoint's analysis indicates that Apple's AI features haven't significantly influenced purchasing decisions. Consumers appear to prioritize traditional improvements like battery life, camera performance, and design over artificial intelligence capabilities.
Looking ahead, Apple's planned launch of the budget-friendly iPhone 17e and its inaugural foldable iPhone in 2026 could further strengthen the company's market position, though rising component costs may present challenges.
India's Growing Importance
While Counterpoint's forecast doesn't extensively cover Apple's prospects in India, recent data reveals promising growth. During the third quarter, Apple's market share in India reached 10.4 percent, representing year-on-year growth of 25.6 percent according to International Data Corporation.
Despite this impressive expansion, Apple's domestic sales of $9 billion in FY25 accounted for just over 2 percent of the company's global revenues of $416.1 billion, indicating substantial room for growth in the world's second-largest smartphone market.
The Indian market continues to view iPhones as aspirational products, with Apple strengthening both its online and offline presence to capitalize on this perception.
