The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted the onset of the southwest monsoon over Kerala around June 4, with a model error of plus or minus four days. This marks the beginning of the four-month monsoon season, which is crucial for India's agriculture and water resources.
Monsoon Onset and Rainfall Forecast
The IMD expects the monsoon to advance gradually, covering most parts of the country by mid-July. The long-range forecast indicates that the southwest monsoon rainfall over the country as a whole during the season (June to September) is likely to be 96% of the Long Period Average (LPA) with a model error of plus or minus 5%. The LPA for the monsoon season is 88 cm based on data from 1971 to 2020.
Regional Distribution
The rainfall distribution is expected to be well-distributed across the country, with normal to above-normal rainfall likely over most parts of the country. However, some areas in the northwest and northeast may receive below-normal rainfall. The IMD has also cautioned that the monsoon may bring heavy rainfall events, leading to flooding in some regions.
Importance of the Monsoon
The southwest monsoon is critical for India's economy, as it provides about 70% of the country's annual rainfall. It supports the Kharif crop season, which includes crops like rice, sugarcane, and cotton. A good monsoon can boost agricultural output and rural demand, while a deficient monsoon can lead to droughts and economic slowdown.
Preparedness Measures
The IMD has advised state governments and disaster management authorities to remain prepared for potential flood situations. Farmers are encouraged to plan their sowing activities based on the monsoon onset and rainfall distribution. The IMD also provides regular updates and alerts through its website and mobile app.
Historical Context
Last year, the monsoon arrived over Kerala on June 1, which was earlier than normal. The onset date varies each year, and the IMD uses a combination of observational data and models to predict it. The onset over Kerala is declared based on consistent rainfall over a specified area and other meteorological parameters.
