Prayagraj: The Sangam City is witnessing a steady increase in its elderly population, with the share of residents aged 60 and above projected to rise from 7.14% in 1991 to 9.33% by 2031, according to a study conducted by Prof AR Siddiqui and his research scholar Anjali Umarvaishya from the Department of Geography at Allahabad University.
Declining Youth Population
In contrast, the proportion of the 0-14 age group is expected to decline from 40.93% to 28.86% during the same period. This reflects a major demographic shift that could redefine the district’s healthcare, social security, and public service requirements in the coming years.
Study Published in Journal of Geography
Published in the latest issue of the Journal of Geography, the study highlights an ongoing demographic transition driven by lower birth rates and rising life expectancy. It calls for better geriatric healthcare and social security planning to address the needs of an ageing population.
Data Analysis Over Decades
The study analyzed census data from 1991, 2001, and 2011, along with projected population estimates for 2021 and 2031, to understand changing demographic patterns in Prayagraj. The findings show that the district’s elderly population has been growing consistently over the last four decades.
Key Findings
People aged 60 years and above constituted 7.14% of the population in 1991, rising to 7.63% in 2001 and 8.19% in 2011. Based on projected figures, the proportion is estimated to have reached 8.45% in 2021 and is expected to touch 9.33% by 2031. Meanwhile, the share of the population in the 0-14 age bracket has been declining continuously: from 40.93% in 1991 to 39.73% in 2001, then sharply to 34.81% in 2011, further to 31.87% in 2021, and projected at 28.86% for 2031—a decline of more than 12 percentage points over four decades.
Demographic Transition
According to Prof. Siddiqui, the trend is a clear manifestation of demographic transition—a stage in which declining fertility rates and rising life expectancy alter the age structure of the population. As families have fewer children and people live longer, the proportion of younger age groups shrinks while the elderly segment expands.
The study notes that India, Uttar Pradesh, and Prayagraj are all moving through this demographic transition. Although the pace of ageing in UP and Prayagraj remains slower than the national average, the direction of change is identical and likely to intensify in the coming years.
Policy Implications
Researchers have cautioned that the changing age structure will require governments and policymakers to rethink long-term planning. Greater investments in geriatric healthcare, old-age welfare schemes, pension and social security programs, age-friendly public infrastructure, and employment policies will be necessary to meet the needs of a growing elderly population.
The study underlines that demographic change is no longer a distant concern for Prayagraj but an emerging reality that demands timely policy intervention to address the social and economic challenges of an ageing society.
