The southwest (summer) monsoon arrived in Kerala on Thursday, June 4, three days after its normal date of June 1, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) announced. This marks the beginning of the rainy season and sowing operations in India.
Monsoon Arrival Details
Last year, the monsoon arrived over Kerala eight days early on May 24. However, the early or late arrival of the monsoon does not affect the overall quantity or spatial distribution of rainfall during the four-month rainy season. The overall status and advancement of the monsoon depend on multiple climatic factors.
Amid the growing risk of El Niño, the IMD has predicted below-normal monsoon rainfall this year, with a 60% probability of it being deficient, raising fears of drought.
IMD Statement on Monsoon Progress
In its statement, the IMD said, "The southwest monsoon has further advanced into remaining parts of the southwest and southeast Arabian Sea, some parts of the west-central and east-central Arabian Sea, the entire Lakshadweep islands, Kerala and Mahe, some parts of Karnataka and Tamil Nadu, remaining parts of the Comorin area, southeast Bay of Bengal, and some more parts of the southwest, west-central, east-central, and northeast Bay of Bengal on June 4."
The IMD added, "Conditions are favorable for further advance of the southwest monsoon into some more parts of the central Arabian Sea, entire Goa, some parts of Maharashtra and Andhra Pradesh, some more parts of Karnataka, remaining parts of Tamil Nadu, southwest Bay of Bengal, some more parts of west-central, east-central, and northeast Bay of Bengal, and some parts of northeastern states during the next 2-3 days."
Forecast Accuracy
The IMD had earlier predicted May 26 (with a model error of +/- 4 days) as the monsoon arrival date over Kerala. However, the forecast made on May 15 did not materialize as expected.
The Met department has been issuing operational forecasts for the date of monsoon onset over Kerala since 2005. An indigenously developed state-of-the-art statistical model with a model error of ± 4 days is used for this purpose.
About the Author: Vishwa Mohan is a Senior Editor at The Times of India, covering environment, climate change, agriculture, water resources, and clean energy, as well as policy issues and climate diplomacy.
