The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has announced that the southwest monsoon is expected to arrive in Kerala within the next two to three days. This forecast was released on Friday, providing an update on the monsoon's progress.
Current Conditions Favorable for Monsoon Advance
According to the IMD, conditions are favorable for the further advancement of the southwest monsoon into additional parts of the southwest and southeast Arabian Sea, the Lakshadweep Islands, and some regions of Kerala and Tamil Nadu over the next two to three days. The monsoon is also likely to advance into parts of the southwest, west-central, east-central, and northeast Bay of Bengal, as well as the remaining areas of the southeast Bay of Bengal.
Revised Onset Date and Rainfall Prediction
The IMD had initially predicted the monsoon onset over Kerala on May 26. However, the arrival was delayed, and on May 29, the department indicated that the onset could occur the following week. In its revised forecast, the IMD stated that the seasonal rainfall would be below normal. India is expected to receive 90 percent of its Long Period Average (LPA) this year. The LPA, based on data from 1971 to 2020, is 87 centimeters for the entire country. A monsoon season with less than 90 percent of the LPA is classified as "deficient."
El Nino Likely to Affect Rainfall
The below-normal rainfall this year may be attributed to the emergence of El Nino conditions, which typically lead to reduced monsoon rainfall in India. The IMD noted that neutral El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions are currently transitioning toward El Nino in the equatorial Pacific region. El Nino conditions are expected to be weak in June but could become moderate to strong by September.
This forecast underscores the importance of monitoring monsoon patterns, as they significantly impact agriculture, water resources, and the overall economy in India.
