China's Nuclear Expansion Shocks World: Is India Falling Behind?
Deep in the remote deserts of Xinjiang, China is quietly building what analysts believe could become one of the most sophisticated nuclear support networks in the world. Newly reviewed satellite images examined by Reuters reveal more than 80 launch pads and three large octagon-shaped military facilities spread across thousands of square kilometres near the Hami nuclear missile silo field.
Major Gaurav Arya explains that the construction is aimed at enhancing China's "land-based second-strike capability" — the ability to launch retaliatory nuclear missiles even after suffering a first strike. While China already possesses nuclear submarines, bombers and ground-based missiles capable of carrying nuclear weapons, Arya says the new desert facilities would provide additional launch options from remote locations if existing military installations were damaged. He also pointed to China's rapid military expansion, arguing that Beijing is investing heavily across land, sea, air and space domains while significantly increasing its nuclear capabilities.
China's Nuclear Expansion: Key Details
China is pumping in billions upon billions of dollars to expand its military capabilities, be it on land, sea, air, and even space. The goal is to have one thousand nuclear warheads by 2030. Satellite images show alarming Chinese buildup near nuclear silos, with 80 launch pads and three octagon-shaped installations. The construction is aimed at ensuring the country can still launch a nuclear response, even if its nuclear facilities are attacked first by the United States.
China already possesses missiles capable of reaching anywhere in the US. However, newly reviewed satellite images show Beijing is significantly strengthening the infrastructure that supports its nuclear missile force. The launch pads could be used by mobile missile launchers and air defense systems, while the larger facilities may support communications, electronic warfare, and military command functions, according to security analysts who reviewed the imagery. Experts say that the scale of the construction suggests China is creating a far more resilient network for its land-based nuclear forces.
China has long maintained a policy of keeping relatively small but credible nuclear deterrent. The country's nuclear strategy is based on its ability to respond to a nuclear attack rather than launch one first. China's nuclear arsenal has been expanding rapidly in recent years, according to the latest Pentagon assessment cited by Reuters, China is expected to possess around one thousand nuclear warheads by 2030. The report also estimates that approximately one hundred ICBMs have already been deployed across China's three main missile silo fields.
India's Response and Capabilities
What India is doing in this regard is something very different. India also has its nuclear capabilities, but India is arming countries which have some sort of a dispute, mostly territorial, be it land or maritime, with China. India sold the BrahMos missile systems to Vietnam very recently, and before that to the Philippines, and now apparently Indonesia wants the BrahMos missiles. The BrahMos capacity is increasing, the range is increasing, the speed is increasing. What India is building now, going further, is more than five Mach, giving a hypersonic cruise missile which can go up to 900 or 1,000 kilometers.
China's expanding nuclear capabilities have implications for India's response. China finished the development and operationalization of its new fast breeder reactors, the CFR-600, which receive Russian fuel support. This assistance will substantially augment the country's weapons-grade plutonium inventory. Russia started shipping out the initial fuel load in late December 2022. FBRs are crucial because they produce more plutonium and fissile material than they consume during power generation. India will need to reconsider its glacial accumulation of atomic weapons to reach a target of 680 to 800 weapons by 2036. China is building warheads ten times faster than India.
India remains in the testing phase of its hypersonic missile capabilities. The hypersonic cruise missile has completed a 1,000-second test, but it's still awaiting government approval. More crucially, even after clearance, it is likely to take seven years before being fully operationalized. An Indian HGV capability is at a more advanced stage, having undergone an initial developmental trial and is expected to be inducted in two or three years following additional trials. Beyond hypersonic missiles already under development, India will need to place a higher premium on sensors, missile defense against hypersonic missiles, and the sub-surface leg of its nuclear forces.
India is in possession of the Swordfish long-range tracking radar developed by the DRDO and BEL, with active electronically scanned array enabling detection of missiles at a range of 1,500 kilometers or more, forming the core element of India's BMD network. More vessels like INS Dhruv and INS Anweshing are required for tracking and intercepting ballistic and hypersonic missiles. The future Project 18 class guided missile destroyers of the Indian Navy will be armed with sea-based BMD capabilities for the first time.
Regarding the range of the Agni V missile, many Chinese reports claim the range is much more than the 5,500 to 8,000 kilometers as claimed by India, but India is hiding facts. The Agni V has a weight of 50,000 kilograms, speed of 24 Mach, length of 17.5 meters, three-stage solid engine, nuclear warhead of 1.5 tons, and diameter of 2 meters. India is also speaking about Agni VI, with DRDO stating that all technology is sorted out and they are waiting for government approval to proceed.
