President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has repeatedly urged Turkish families to have more children, warning that the nation's aging population threatens its economic and political future. Yet, despite his impassioned appeals, Turkey's total fertility rate continues to slide.
Declining Fertility Rate
The total fertility rate — the average number of children a woman is expected to have over her lifetime — has been falling for more than a decade. According to official data, the rate dropped from 2.08 in 2014 to around 1.7 in recent years, well below the replacement level of 2.1 needed to maintain a stable population.
Why Parents Are Hesitant
Economic pressures are a major factor. Rising inflation, high unemployment, and soaring living costs make raising children increasingly expensive. Many young couples cite financial insecurity as a primary reason for delaying or limiting childbearing.
Additionally, changing social norms have led to greater emphasis on careers and personal fulfillment. Women, in particular, are pursuing higher education and professional opportunities, often choosing to have fewer children or none at all.
The COVID-19 pandemic further exacerbated the trend, with many families postponing plans due to health concerns and economic uncertainty.
Government Incentives Fall Short
Ankara has introduced various incentives to boost birth rates, including cash bonuses, paid maternity leave, and subsidized childcare. However, these measures have had limited impact. Critics argue that they do not address the root causes, such as inadequate housing, poor work-life balance, and insufficient support for working mothers.
Erdogan has also promoted traditional family values, stating that every family should have at least three children. Yet, his rhetoric has been met with skepticism, especially among urban, educated populations who view it as out of touch with modern realities.
Demographic Challenges Ahead
The declining fertility rate poses long-term challenges for Turkey. A shrinking workforce could strain the economy and social security systems, while an aging population increases healthcare costs. The government projects that the population will peak around 2050 and then decline sharply if trends continue.
Some experts suggest that immigration could offset the decline, but Turkey already hosts millions of refugees, and public sentiment on further immigration is mixed.
For now, Erdogan's call for more babies appears to be falling on deaf ears. As economic and social pressures mount, Turkish parents are making their own choices — and they are not listening to their president.
