The uncertainty surrounding the progress of the southwest monsoon has intensified following its failure to make a timely onset over Kerala by June 1. This delay has prompted weather experts to remain cautious about predicting its arrival in Maharashtra. In response, Maharashtra Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis has advised farmers against rushing into sowing operations based on pre-monsoon thunderstorms forecast across parts of the state in the coming days.
Chief Minister's Advisory
In a message on social media, Fadnavis stated, "Although there is a possibility of thunderstorms in some parts of the state starting from June 1, it has no connection with the monsoon, as the monsoon has not yet arrived in Kerala." He further added, "Based on the current situation, it has become clear that the arrival of the monsoon is unlikely in most parts of the state until at least June 10." Normally, the monsoon enters Maharashtra after June 5, and pre-monsoon thunderstorms are not linked to the monsoon's arrival.
IMD Forecast
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Monday indicated that conditions are favorable for the further advance of the southwest monsoon into additional parts of the southwest and southeast Arabian Sea, Lakshadweep Islands, some parts of Kerala and Tamil Nadu, as well as more areas of the southwest, westcentral, eastcentral, and northeast Bay of Bengal, and the remaining parts of the southeast Bay of Bengal over the next 2-3 days. The IMD has forecast isolated to scattered light to moderate rainfall, accompanied by thunderstorms, lightning, and gusty winds reaching 40-50 km per hour over Konkan and Goa from June 1 to 4, Madhya Maharashtra on June 3 and 4, and Marathwada during June 2-3. The weather agency also warned of a thundersquall over Madhya Maharashtra on June 3, with wind speeds likely to reach 50-60 kmph and gusts up to 70 kmph.
Impact on Maharashtra
The delay in Kerala's onset has complicated projections for Maharashtra, as the state's monsoon advance is closely linked to the system's northward movement after reaching the southern coast. Meteorologists have stated that a clearer picture of the monsoon progress over Maharashtra is likely to emerge only after the onset over Kerala is officially declared.
Advice to Farmers
An Agriculture department official advised farmers to wait. "At this stage, they should not rush into sowing. Only those crops for which dry sowing (’dhul perani’) is feasible may be considered. Otherwise, farmers should avoid taking up sowing activities at this stage. Sowing should be undertaken only after the required monsoon rainfall is received and favorable soil conditions develop," the official said.
An IMD official elaborated, "We cannot say anything about Maharashtra’s monsoon onset until monsoon reaches Kerala. After its onset over Kerala, we continuously monitor the system and then assess how it is likely to progress further." Regarding the CM's advisory, the official noted, "The rainfall expected over the next few days is pre-monsoon activity. This kind of rainfall is not suitable for sowing. For sowing, we need widespread, continuous and adequate rainfall so that sufficient soil moisture is available. Farmers should wait for monsoon rainfall rather than depend on pre-monsoon showers for sowing."
On the upcoming rain forecast, the official added, "Pre-monsoon showers are likely over parts of Maharashtra, but these will occur in isolated pockets and not uniformly across the state. We have forecast rain activity for Pune from June 3 to June 5."
