The India Meteorological Department (IMD) announced on Thursday that conditions are favourable for the southwest monsoon to advance into the northeastern states within the next two to three days. This follows the declaration of the monsoon's onset over Kerala.
Heavy Rainfall Expected Across Northeast
After isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall was recorded in several northeastern states over the past 24 hours, the Met office has predicted that heavy to very heavy rain will continue across the region for the next five to six days. The IMD stated, "Conditions are favourable for further advance of southwest monsoon into some more parts of central Arabian Sea, entire Goa, some parts of Maharashtra and Andhra Pradesh, some more parts of Karnataka, remaining parts of Tamil Nadu, Southwest Bay of Bengal, some more parts of Westcentral, East central and Northeast Bay of Bengal, some parts of northeastern state during next 2-3 days."
Normal Onset Date and Farming Impact
The normal monsoon onset date in the northeast is June 5, and this year the onset across the region is expected to be almost simultaneous, according to Met officials. They added that a heavy spell is likely with the onset of monsoon, which could benefit farmers who have been waiting to begin ploughing paddy fields in states such as Assam, the largest paddy-producing state in the northeast.
Seasonal Rainfall Forecast
According to the latest Long Range Forecast for the Southwest Monsoon Seasonal Rainfall during June–September, rainfall during the monsoon months is most likely to be normal over Northeast India—94 to 106% of the Long Period Average (LPA)—and below normal over Central & South Peninsular India (<94% of LPA) and Northwest India (<92% of LPA). For June, the IMD's monthly outlook indicates below-normal rainfall over most parts of the country, while Northeast India is likely to see normal to above-normal rainfall.
Detailed Weather Warnings
The IMD said fairly widespread to widespread light to moderate rain with thunderstorms, moderate lightning and gusty winds (40-50 kmph) is likely over Assam and Meghalaya during June 6-7, and over Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura during June 5-7. Gusty winds of 30-40 kmph are likely over Assam and Meghalaya until Friday. Isolated heavy rainfall is likely over Arunachal Pradesh on Friday and on June 10; over Assam and Meghalaya during June 4-5 and on June 10; and over Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura during June 5-10. Isolated very heavy rainfall is also likely over Arunachal Pradesh during June 6-9, and over Assam and Meghalaya during June 6-9.
This forecast comes as a relief for the region, which has been waiting for the monsoon to commence agricultural activities and replenish water resources.
