The United Kingdom's new government plans to make it harder for immigrants to settle permanently could inadvertently drive away the highest-paid migrants, according to a new analysis. The report suggests that those earning the most are already the least likely to stay, and stricter rules could exacerbate this trend.
Migration Advisory Committee Report
A report by the Migration Advisory Committee (MAC), titled "Who Stays, Who Leaves?", tracked approximately 900,000 migration journeys between 2014 and 2024. The research aimed to understand long-term migration patterns and their impact on labour shortages, population forecasts, and public finances.
According to The Guardian's coverage of the findings, the MAC revealed that migrants earning the lowest wages are the most likely to remain in the UK long term. Conversely, those earning above £125,000 are the most likely income group to leave. The committee noted that higher-paid migrants benefit from more global opportunities and face fewer financial barriers to moving elsewhere, reducing their incentive to stay in Britain.
Proposed Changes to Settlement Rules
Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood has proposed raising the qualifying period for settled status from five years to ten. Higher-rate taxpayers and others meeting certain criteria could qualify for a reduced wait, bringing the threshold back down to five years. However, the MAC warned that even this two-tier system could deter high earners from committing to the UK.
The report stated that groups with lower stay rates under current policy, such as higher earners and those working in higher education, could be more susceptible to being put off by a less generous settlement offer.
Retention Rates by Occupation and Demographics
On the other end of the scale, nurses showed a stay rate of 94% after five years, and immigrants earning under £40,000 demonstrated strong commitment to remaining in the country. Academics and natural and social science professionals recorded the lowest stay rates at 57% after five years, largely due to short-term contracts and internationally mobile careers.
Younger migrants showed stronger retention, with those under 45 staying at an 81% rate after five years compared to 65% for those aged 45 and above. Women were around five percentage points more likely to remain than men, a gap the report linked partly to higher representation in health and social care roles.
Regional and National Trends
People from African and South Asian countries had the highest stay rates, while those from North America, Oceania, and East Asia were the most likely to leave. London retained migrants at the highest rate, while Scotland and Wales recorded the lowest retention.
