In an unexpected turn of events, the northeast monsoon has presented Chennai with a meteorological puzzle just 48 hours after a weather system developed over the Strait of Malacca. A fresh low-pressure area has now emerged over the Comorin region and adjoining southwest Bay of Bengal and Sri Lanka, raising questions about which system will ultimately deliver heavy rainfall to the city.
Two Systems, One Big Question
Meteorologists are closely monitoring both weather formations. The Malacca system, which intensified into a depression on Tuesday, is now predicted to veer away toward the southeast Arabian Sea. Meanwhile, the newly formed low pressure near Sri Lanka shows stronger potential for intensification into a cyclonic system.
The Indian Meteorological Department has maintained an orange alert for very heavy rainfall in Chennai on November 29. However, private weather forecasters suggest the intensity might only reach moderate levels. An official explained that the Malacca system may move towards Lakshadweep, while the Sri Lanka system is expected to move north-northwestwards.
Revised Forecasts and Alerts
Earlier predictions from the IMD suggested the Malacca system would develop into a cyclone, but this projection was revised on Tuesday. N Senthamarai Kannan, director of the regional weather forecasting centre, stated that while the Malacca system might intensify into a deep depression, current wind speed forecasts weren't convincing enough to issue a cyclone alert immediately.
For Wednesday, Chennai and its suburbs are likely to experience light rain in some areas with partly cloudy skies. The rainfall pattern shows significant concentration over specific regions in the coming days.
District-wise Impact and Expert Analysis
On November 28, three delta districts have been placed under orange alert as rainfall concentrates over these regions. The following day, coastal districts from Tiruvallur to Ramanathapuram and adjoining districts may experience intense spells, with 11 districts including Chennai and its neighbors under orange alert.
By November 30, Tiruvallur retains its orange alert status, while Chennai and surrounding districts have been issued a yellow alert anticipating 6-12 cm of rainfall within 24 hours.
Mahesh Palawat, chief meteorologist at Skymet Weather, characterized the potential cyclone as slow-moving but likely to bring only moderate intensity rainfall to Chennai. He suggested the IMD's orange alerts serve as precautionary measures, noting that weather models indicate possible landfall near north Andhra Pradesh.
Weather blogger Pradeep John added in his online post that rainfall would reduce over other parts of Tamil Nadu in the next two days as convergence shifts to Sri Lanka with the cyclone formation.
