Chennai residents anticipating relief from the ongoing dry spell may need to wait a few more days as meteorological developments over the Bay of Bengal signal the return of intense monsoon activity. While Cyclone Senyar has formed over the Strait of Malacca, the city's weather fortunes hinge on another brewing system expected to bring significant rainfall later this week.
Weather System Intensification Timeline
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has identified a weather system likely to develop into a depression near Sri Lanka on Thursday. This system is projected to intensify further during the subsequent 48 hours while moving along the Tamil Nadu coastline. Meteorological officials confirm this development should revive monsoon activity across the region.
P Senthamarai Kannan, Director of the Regional Weather Forecasting Centre at IMD, provided crucial insights: "As of now, the system may develop into a deep depression. The difference in wind speeds between a deep depression and a cyclone is only 10 knots. We are tracking the system and will update the forecast if needed."
Rainfall Alerts and District Warnings
The IMD has maintained orange alerts for heavy to very heavy rainfall across Chennai and 14 neighboring districts on November 29. The weather agency further upgraded yellow alerts to orange status for Chennai and four additional districts effective November 30.
Rainfall distribution patterns indicate coastal districts from Tiruvallur to Nagapattinam and their adjoining areas will experience the system's direct influence on November 29. Six inland districts are also likely to receive heavy precipitation during this period.
Specific warnings include:
- Orange alerts for Thanjavur, Tiruvarur, and Nagapattinam
- Heavy rainfall (6-12 cm in 24 hours) expected in six nearby districts
- Very heavy rain anticipated over Chennai and surrounding districts on November 30
- Three other northern Tamil Nadu districts likely to experience heavy spells
Conflicting Predictions and Historical Context
While the IMD maintains the system will likely reach deep depression status, weather bloggers have suggested the potential for further intensification. Some independent forecasters indicate the system might develop into a cyclonic storm, bringing heavy rainfall over northern Tamil Nadu, including Chennai, on November 30 and December 1.
Noted weather blogger Pradeep John provided historical context, noting that "no weather system has historically intensified into a cyclone over the Malacca Strait." He elaborated that only three depressions forming in that region subsequently strengthened into cyclones after moving away from the area.
John's analysis suggests the delta region, Cuddalore, and Puducherry will likely experience rainfall beginning November 29, while Chennai and neighboring districts should prepare for significant precipitation on November 30 and December 1.
Meanwhile, Chennai and its suburbs might receive light rainfall in isolated areas on Thursday, with partly cloudy skies maintaining maximum temperatures around 31°C and minimum temperatures near 25°C. The current pause in rainfall activity over southern districts is expected to break with the return of intense spells from Friday onward.
