The 2026 El Nino weather pattern is projected to impact India's energy system more severely than any other country, according to a new analysis by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA). The report warns that reduced wind and rainfall will cut power generation from turbines and hydropower, while higher temperatures will drive up demand for air conditioning.
Key Findings on Energy Demand and Generation Gap
The analysis models the impact of the transition from La Nina to El Nino on India's power sector from July 2026 to June 2027. It states that additional cooling demand could total 10 terawatt-hours (TWh) within a year — equivalent to a quarter of Delhi's annual electricity use. Combined with lost renewable output, India could face a generation gap of nearly 18 TWh.
“Currently, the most likely outcome is a surge in coal-fired power, which would release an estimated 17 million tonnes of CO2. In the most severe scenario, the extra coal generation reaches 24 TWh, roughly half of India’s entire increase in coal burn last year,” the analysis said.
Strain on Grid and Water Resources
The 2026 El Nino is described as a foretaste of extreme weather events becoming more common in a warming world. The report notes that India has just endured a deadly heatwave and one of its hottest summers on record, pushing power demand to an all-time high of 270 GW. “A super El Nino will raise the stakes again — putting even more strain on the grid while worsening water shortages and pressure on farming,” it said.
Challenges with Coal and the Role of Solar
Record demand peaks are often used to justify new coal capacity, but India's coal-fired power plants face challenges in keeping up with the demand curve and operating flexibly. Grid operators curtailed around 2.1 TWh of solar and wind last year just to keep coal plants running. However, the report highlights solar power as an alternative: “Solar power is playing an ever-increasing role in powering India, now meeting 24% of daytime power demand. Solar generation is also far less affected by El Nino, meaning that every additional solar panel and battery that India installs helps future-proof the grid against extreme weather patterns.”
Recommendations for Grid Resilience
India must stay on track for its target of 500 GW of non-fossil power by 2030 but also accelerate deployment of batteries and grid upgrades to ensure clean energy can meet future surges reliably and affordably, the report concluded.
