NEW DELHI: According to the India Meteorological Department's (IMD) May forecast released on Friday, many parts of the country may not experience hotter than usual conditions this month due to 'above normal' rainfall. However, certain states, particularly those along the Himalayan foothills such as southern Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand, along the eastern coast, and some parts of Maharashtra and Gujarat, are likely to face 'above normal' heatwave days, with an additional 3 to 8 days of extreme heat.
Warmer Nights and Climate Change
The Met department also predicted warmer nights, with above normal minimum temperatures across many parts of the country. IMD chief Mrutyunjay Mohapatra stated that this phenomenon is linked to climate change. While daytime temperatures are expected to be normal to below normal across many regions, above-normal temperatures are likely in parts of southern peninsular India, some areas of the northeast, and northwest India.
Rainfall and Weather Patterns
'Above normal' rainfall during the month is attributed to an increased frequency of western disturbances and thunderstorm activity due to favorable troughs and upper air cyclonic circulations. These conditions are likely to bring down daytime temperatures to 'below normal' in certain regions. Mohapatra explained that minimum temperatures are expected to be above normal across many parts of the country, but areas of northwest India, parts of central India, adjoining areas of peninsular India, and southern parts of northeast India may experience normal to below-normal minimum temperatures.
Monsoon Onset
The southwest monsoon is expected to arrive over the Andaman and Nicobar Islands around May 14-20. A forecast for its onset over Kerala, which marks the arrival of the monsoon over India's mainland, is expected around May 15. The Met department has already predicted 'below normal' monsoon rainfall this year amid the risk of El Nino, which is often linked to depressed rainfall over the Indian subcontinent.
Extreme Weather Events
The increasing frequency of western disturbances—moist air and low-pressure systems over the Mediterranean region that enter India and affect local weather—led to seven such events in April, causing thunderstorms, rain, winds, and lightning in northwest and adjoining central and east India. Extreme weather events linked to these disturbances claimed 24 lives last month, with lightning alone killing 10 people in Andhra Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, and Odisha.
About the Author: Vishwa Mohan is Senior Editor at The Times of India, covering environment, climate change, agriculture, water resources, and clean energy, tracking policy issues and climate diplomacy.
